A recent ratings update for gubernatorial elections reveals that this cycle has been notably uneventful, with only one race expected to be competitive.
North Carolina has shifted its outlook towards the Democrats. Early polling indicated that Republican candidate Mark Robinson had a lead up until March; however, subsequent polls have consistently favored Democrat Josh Stein, who has maintained a lead in all public polls since July. Currently, Stein holds an aggregate lead of 11%, according to polling data.
Robinson’s campaign has faced significant challenges, marked by ongoing controversies and a failure to resonate with voters, leading many to view him as a likely loser. As a result, the ratings have moved from a Tossup to Likely Democratic.
Recent developments have intensified the situation for Robinson, with both state Republicans and the Trump campaign reportedly urging him to withdraw from the race. Republican lawmakers are preparing statements for his exit, while the Trump campaign has barred him from attending campaign events.
Today is the final deadline for Robinson to exit the race, and even if he withdraws, his name would remain on the ballot. Although Robinson claims he will continue his candidacy, the realistic path ahead appears bleak, prompting a move of this race to Safe Democratic. Should Robinson decide to step down, the rating may be reviewed.
The implications for North Carolina Republicans are severe. The lack of support for Robinson’s campaign poses risks for down-ballot candidates, as Republicans need to secure at least one Biden seat to achieve a supermajority in the state House while contesting several competitive urban and suburban seats.
If Robinson loses by ten points or more, Republicans are likely to lose their typical down-ballot advantage. Although they are not expected to lose their majorities, achieving a supermajority in the state House now seems considerably less attainable.
As for other gubernatorial races, North Carolina is now considered non-competitive, leaving only New Hampshire in contention. In New Hampshire, former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) is up against former Westchester mayor Joyce Craig (D). Although Democrats are favored in federal races here, polling suggests this matchup remains competitive, with Ayotte leading in three of the four public polls conducted.
The remaining races of interest include Washington, where Republicans have nominated former King County Sheriff and Congressman Dave Reichart, who is performing slightly better than standard Republican candidates but still falling short of a win. Meanwhile, in Utah, incumbent Republican Spencer Cox faces a write-in campaign from Phil Lyman and two minor-party candidates. While the race is unlikely to be competitive, these candidates may siphon off some of Cox’s support.