A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of non-diabetic patients being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from approximately 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 to include the treatment Wegovy for weight loss. This change has prompted both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to struggle with meeting the surging demand for their GLP-1 products, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of these medications’ benefits for obesity treatment. However, this trend raises alarms about potential shortages and the need to ensure continued access for diabetic patients.
Sales of GLP-1 drugs have soared, significantly increasing the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. This rise in demand has created challenges for patients in securing their prescriptions. Both companies have made substantial investments to increase their production capabilities. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with about 31.5 million Americans, or approximately 9% of the population, expected to be using these drugs by 2035.