The NFL’s playoff race is heating up as we move into the latter half of the 2025 season. While standings provide an overview of each team’s prospects, they fail to capture nuances like team strength, injuries, tiebreakers, and future schedules that could impact playoff odds. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder has categorized all 32 NFL teams into nine tiers of playoff potential, ranging from solid Super Bowl contenders to those planning for next season.
These tiers are informed by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), betting lines, and player performances, alongside insights from ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters who highlighted specific objectives for teams as they reset for the second half of the season. The analysis makes it clear that despite the current standings, many teams could alter their outlook by the end of Week 18.
In the first tier, the Philadelphia Eagles stand high, boasting a 96.7% chance of making the playoffs and aspirations of securing the top seed in the NFC. After making adjustments at the trade deadline, the Eagles aim to solidify their standing with upcoming games against the Packers and Lions, which could broaden their lead.
The Los Angeles Rams also find themselves in a prominent position with a playoff likelihood of 95.2%. Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s solid performance and an outstanding season from rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, combined with a robust defense, have put them in a favorable spot. The Rams are targeting home-field advantage in the playoffs to enhance their chances of success.
On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills have experienced ups and downs, and with an 87.2% playoff probability, they are striving to reclaim their top position in the AFC East after a surprising recent loss. Josh Allen and the team are determined to navigate injuries and inconsistencies to secure a playoff spot.
The Seattle Seahawks, having proven doubters wrong with the arrival of quarterback Sam Darnold, sit with an 80.1% chance of postseason play. Despite struggles in the running game, there’s optimism as the team looks to incorporate fresh talent to boost their efficiency.
Other teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, remain in the conversation for Super Bowl contention but face hurdles. The Chiefs stand at a 75.8% playoff chance but must overcome challenges in their pass rush, while the Lions, with a strong offensive showing, are seeking an identity under a new coordinator amid a competitive NFC North.
As the season progresses, teams are tasked with addressing weaknesses and finding ways to enhance their playoff hopes, whether through strategic game plans or player recoveries. The coming weeks promise to be pivotal in determining which teams will thrive in the playoffs and which will need to shift focus to next season. The increasingly competitive landscape should keep fans engaged and eager for the thrilling matchups ahead.