In last week’s commentary, we accurately predicted the movement in the line for the Falcons-Patriots matchup, suggesting a wager on the Patriots at -2.5. Our reasoning hinged on the expectation that a win over the Browns would have a stronger impact than the Falcons’ performance against the Dolphins, considering the latter’s previous results. The Falcons ultimately disappointed in Miami, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, resulting in a shift in the betting line to Patriots -5.5 for their upcoming game.
Additionally, we identified value in betting on the Bears in their upcoming game against Cincinnati. The Bears were initially projected as just a 1.5-point favor, a shift that can largely be attributed to an injury to Joe Flacco, which has pushed the line to Bears -3. The Broncos-Texans matchup also showcased line movement as expectations around player availability changed; with Nico Collins potentially returning, the Texans now find themselves favored, also reflecting the Broncos’ loss of star cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Looking ahead to Week 10, recent trends exhibiting favor towards favorites could result in inflated spreads, raising the potential for these favorites to underperform, which may influence their lines for the following week. Below are the consensus Week 10 lookahead lines:
– Raiders at Broncos (-10.5), O/U 42.5
– Falcons vs. Colts (-7) in Berlin, O/U 48.5
– Ravens (-3.5) at Vikings, O/U 46.5
– Bills (-8.5) at Dolphins, O/U 50
– Browns at Jets (-1.5), O/U 38.5
– Jaguars at Texans (-3), O/U 41.5
– Giants at Bears (-3), O/U 47
– Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5), O/U 47.5
– Saints at Panthers (-3.5), O/U 41.5
– Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5), O/U 44.5
– Lions (-3.5) at Commanders, O/U 51.5
– Rams (-3) at 49ers, O/U 48.5
– Steelers at Chargers (-4.5), O/U 46.5
– Eagles at Packers (-3), O/U 45.5
For our Week 10 predictions:
**Raiders at Broncos:** Despite both teams being inactive in Week 8, we believe the Raiders are finding their footing, with early trends indicating they might edge below +3. With the Broncos’ struggles, laying double digits seems implausible against a defensive powerhouse. A competitive performance from the Raiders this week could lead to a more favorable line for their matchup.
**Ravens at Vikings:** This matchup has the potential for the line to move to a higher figure. With the Ravens playing on Thursday, their performance could significantly influence the line, particularly regarding quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s effectiveness against a rejuvenated Lions defense.
**Falcons versus Colts in Berlin:** The Colts have had a strong season thus far but face a stern test this week. If the Steelers manage an upset, questions may arise regarding the Colts’ ranking among elite teams. The seven-point spread for a neutral site game seems generous if the Falcons can showcase their strengths when at full health.
Additionally, while we generally refrain from discussing totals, the 38.5 points set for the Browns-Jets game appears high given the defenses involved. Interest may arise if this line settles at 38.5, potentially leading to movement towards the under. Should the Jaguars and Texans perform as anticipated in their respective matchups, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line shift favorably for the Texans upon reopening.
With favorable dynamics and potential shifts in the market, gamblers have much to consider as they lock in their bets for the upcoming week.