California Governor Gavin Newsom is gaining traction as the early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a recent survey. The Yale Youth Poll, conducted by undergraduates, surveyed 3,426 registered voters nationwide, with a significant focus on younger voters, sampling 1,706 individuals aged 18 to 34.
In the poll results, Newsom emerged with the highest support among potential Democratic candidates, securing 25%. He is followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at 16%, and former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%. Notably, 85% of Democratic voters view Newsom as the candidate best positioned to win against a generic Republican challenger in a general election.
On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance holds a commanding lead in a potential Trump-free primary, garnering 51% support among GOP voters. However, the figures shift significantly when considering a hypothetical scenario involving a Trump candidacy. In that case, Trump earns 50% of the vote, while Vance’s support drops to 19%. This underscores the enduring influence of Trump within the party, particularly among older voters, as younger Republicans appear less enamored, with Trump failing to secure majority support among voters under 30.
The poll further indicates a noticeable decline in Trump’s favorability among young voters, who now express disapproval of his performance by margins exceeding 30 points. Additionally, Democratic candidates are leading significantly among every age group under 35 in a generic congressional ballot.
Interestingly, the survey reveals divergent strategies within the two parties. While 55% of GOP voters advocate for a focus on energizing their base through “Trumpism,” Democrats are divided on whether to rally their core supporters or appeal more to centrists. This ongoing generational debate strengthens Newsom’s position, as he increasingly represents a balance between youth appeal and mainstream electability.
Conducted by Verasight from October 29 to November 11, 2025, the online survey carries a margin of error of ±1.7 percentage points for the full sample.
With the 2028 election cycle still unfolding, Newsom’s early lead suggests a potentially transformative path for the Democratic Party, appealing to younger voters while navigating the political landscape shaped by both parties’ current leadership dynamics.