The New Start treaty, a pivotal arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, is set to expire on Thursday, marking the end of mutual limits on the two nations’ nuclear arsenals. This development is poised to undermine over five decades of arms control efforts and signals a troubling trend amid growing global instability, challenging the rules-based international order established after World War II.
Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, remarked on the changing landscape, stating, “This is a new moment, a new reality – we are ready for it.” The sentiments of Alexandra Bell, president of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, reflect deep concern as she noted, “When it comes to nuclear risks, everything is trending in the wrong direction.” Bell highlighted the urgency of the situation, emphasizing that the impending expiration of the treaty could dismantle decades of stability maintained by the agreement between the two largest nuclear powers.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president who signed the initial New Start agreement with Barack Obama in 2010, voiced alarm over the treaty’s termination. He indicated that without an agreement, trust between the nations has dwindled. Former President Obama echoed these sentiments, warning that the treaty’s expiration could trigger a new arms race detrimental to global security.
Despite recent calls from arms control advocates urging both nations to salvage the treaty, negotiations appear to have stalled. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a one-year extension, an idea that Trump seemed open to but did not pursue further. Trump had also signaled indifference towards the treaty’s expiration, suggesting a readiness for a “better agreement,” but experts like Jennifer Kavanagh have criticized such assumptions as overly optimistic, stressing the complexities of achieving new agreements without existing frameworks in place.
New Start established crucial limits on both countries’ deployed strategic arsenals, currently capping each at 1,550 warheads, but has faced challenges, especially after Russia suspended its participation in monitoring and inspections in response to U.S. actions supporting Ukraine. The dissolution of this treaty could very well lead to an escalation of nuclear arms races, as nations prioritize defense strategies amid perceived threats.
Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, warned that the treaty’s end may rapidly encourage a new arms race, particularly as the U.S. responds to China’s growing military capabilities. Furthermore, this could jeopardize the integrity of the 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), as a lack of adherence to disarmament commitments from nuclear states raises questions about compliance and trust among nations.
In light of rising tensions globally, the potential end of New Start illustrates a critical juncture where the principles of nuclear deterrence, historically viewed as stabilizing, now face increasing scrutiny. Analysts point out that nuclear arsenals are losing their previous stabilizing effects, especially following recent conflicts involving Russia.
As the world watches these developments, the call for renewed dialogue and cooperation in arms control remains essential. A hopeful outlook persists among advocates who believe that despite current challenges, there remains a pathway towards rebuilding trust and fostering international stability through diplomatic efforts.