New Jersey voters are in for a tight race as gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill leads the polls, yet a new survey reveals many believe their neighbors are aligning with Republican Jack Ciattarelli. According to a poll by Quantus Insights, 53% of likely New Jersey voters think their co-workers and neighbors are supporting Ciattarelli, while only 47% feel the same about Sherrill. Interestingly, the same poll shows Sherrill holding a narrow lead of 49% to 46% against Ciattarelli.
GOP strategist Jeanette Hoffman noted that this perception reflects an increasing momentum for Ciattarelli, suggesting he could potentially win in the upcoming election. Despite Sherrill’s polling advantage, voters’ perception of Ciattarelli’s support aligns with historical patterns; polls underestimated his backing in the past, particularly when he narrowly lost to former Governor Phil Murphy in 2021.
The analysis argues that voters’ beliefs about their neighbors’ choices can serve as a reliable indicator of campaign dynamics, signifying potential momentum shifts. Among Republican voters, an overwhelming 83% believe their neighbors favor Ciattarelli, amplifying the notion of strong grassroots support for him.
Additionally, while Sherrill enjoys a polling lead, the early voting trend seems favorable for her party, with 54% of early voters identifying as Democrats compared to 28% for Republicans. Currently, only 29% of likely voters have participated in early voting, which includes 35% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans.
As the campaign approaches its culmination with Election Day on Tuesday, the landscape remains unpredictable. The Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 1,380 likely voters from October 26 to 27, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, signifying that the race remains highly competitive and could sway in unexpected directions. This electoral uncertainty reflects the vibrant and dynamic nature of New Jersey’s political scene ahead of a crucial gubernatorial decision.