The upcoming 2025 gubernatorial election in New Jersey is drawing national attention as it presents a significant contest between Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill. One of only two governor races taking place in the U.S. this year, it is seen as a potential indicator of broader national political sentiments regarding President Donald Trump and the upcoming 2026 midterms.
Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman, is making his third bid for the governorship, seeking to shift the current Democratic control of the state’s executive office following Gov. Phil Murphy’s tenure. In contrast, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, having emerged victorious from a competitive primary, aims to maintain Democratic leadership in New Jersey.
Daniel Bowen, a political science professor at The College of New Jersey, underscored the race’s significance, stating it is possibly the most competitive and crucial race in the country. Ciattarelli is focusing on addressing state-specific issues and his campaign emphasizes New Jersey’s potential, claiming residents are primarily concerned with local improvements.
Sherrill, however, frames her campaign within a national context, highlighting stakes that resonate beyond New Jersey. She accuses Ciattarelli of aligning with Trump and suggests this could impact state policies adversely. Sherrill is positioning her campaign as a chance to reinforce Democratic values, offering an alternative narrative focused on working family support and accountability.
Both candidates debated key issues such as taxes and small business support during their gubernatorial debate. Sherrill criticized Ciattarelli’s support of some of Trump’s contentious policies, while Ciattarelli linked Sherrill to the status quo under the Democratic control, which he argues has led to dissatisfaction among residents.
The race is witnessing significant financial investments, expected to reach $140 million in ad spending, reflecting its importance. Both national Democratic and Republican organizations have heavily invested resources, highlighting New Jersey as a battleground state.
New Jersey’s longstanding political pattern of alternating between Republican and Democratic governorships is notable. The state’s independent voter base, comprising over 2 million individuals, plays a pivotal role in election outcomes. With past electoral shifts, Republican optimism is further buoyed by the fact that Kamala Harris’s victory margin in New Jersey decreased in the 2024 election compared to Joe Biden’s in 2020.
Both campaigns are leveraging targeted outreach strategies. The Republican party, under Kate Gibbs’ direction, is executing an aggressive ground campaign to reduce the registration gap between Democrats and Republicans. Meanwhile, the Sherrill campaign is also actively engaging voters through extensive contact initiatives, demonstrating strong grassroots support.
As election day approaches, the nation watches closely to see whether New Jersey will signal a shift in political momentum or affirm the current trajectory, with both state and national implications at play.