New flu virus mutations could lead to the most severe season in a decade. A suddenly mutated seasonal flu virus that emerged during the summer has raised concerns among health experts, as it appears to evade some levels of immunity built up from previous infections and vaccinations. The NHS has responded to these fears by issuing a “flu jab SOS,” signaling that this winter could be particularly brutal.
Leading flu specialists express that this season might become exceptionally severe. Professor Nicola Lewis, director of the World Influenza Centre at the Francis Crick Institute, noted that the unusual dynamics observed with the current virus are concerning, although she encourages calm amid the alarm. The flu virus’s evolution typically consists of gradual changes, but a significant mutation occurred this June with seven changes to the H3N2 strain, which led to a rapid increase in reported cases.
What sets this year apart is that such mutations have surfaced during the offseason, with the virus expected to spread rapidly across the globe. The mutation has facilitated easier transmission among individuals, triggering an early onset of flu season in the UK and other countries, including Japan. The R number—a measure of transmission—has increased from the typical 1.2 to an estimated 1.4, indicating a potential rise in infections. Professor Christophe Fraser from the Pandemic Sciences Institute at the University of Oxford warned that this could lead to a higher infection rate than usual, predicting that one in five people typically get infected during flu season and that this year’s figures may be even worse.
Experts are also concerned due to historical data suggesting this H3N2 strain is more severe, especially for older populations. H3 viruses have a reputation for being more impactful compared to other types. While some individuals may experience mild flu symptoms, the virus can be deadly to vulnerable groups. In previous flu seasons, significant fatalities have been recorded, highlighting the urgency of vaccination.
In light of these developments, the NHS is promoting the seasonal flu vaccine aggressively, with millions of slots made available for individuals to receive their shots. Experts believe that vaccination is the most effective defense against the anticipated surge in flu cases, providing hope for mitigating impact during this challenging season.