NASCAR’s Cup Series kicks off its postseason this Sunday with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, launching a four-round playoff format that features three races per round in the first three rounds and a Championship 4 race on November 2 to crown the champion. The playoff field of 16 is set to tackle a schedule that includes two new short, flat tracks (Gateway/WWT Raceway near St. Louis and New Hampshire) alongside the traditional postseason staples, with Phoenix serving as the climactic championship track for this year before the finale moves to Homestead next season.
Ahead of the green flag, our NASCAR experts offer their thoughts on the postseason picture, the race at Darlington, and who they believe will reach the Championship 4 and ultimately win the title. While the odds for the race and the playoff winner are published, specific numbers aren’t included here; the emphasis remains on the strategic storylines and the drivers most likely to shine as the playoffs begin.
Biggest postseason storylines
– Jeff Gluck highlights the depth of competition this year, with a slate of contenders who could realistically win the title. He points to Joey Logano as a master of the playoff format who could make it four straight titles for Team Penske in the Next Gen era. He also notes Denny Hamlin’s speed and persistent title contention, especially as he chases a first career championship later in his career, all while navigating ongoing antitrust matters. William Byron and Christopher Bell are seen as potential breakout champions, and Kyle Larson or Ryan Blaney could add another title to their resumes. Chase Briscoe’s unfamiliar role at JGR, driving Martin Truex Jr.’s former car, adds another layer of intrigue.
– Jordan Bianchi emphasizes the parity this season, with a broad group of six to eight realistic title contenders rather than one or two standouts. That level of competition makes the playoffs feel especially open and is likely to heighten drama over the next 10 weeks.
Postseason schedule quirks and who they favor
– The inclusion of Gateway and New Hampshire brings shorter, flatter tracks into the mix, a strength for Team Penske historically. That shift could influence the championship picture, especially on tracks that favor strategic race management and long-run pace.
– The Phoenix finale remains central to the current design, though it is set to move to Homestead next season. Hendrick Motorsports has emphasized improvement at Phoenix, but thus far the early results haven’t fully reflected the off-season focus. The playoffs will reveal whether their gains translate to timely success when it matters most.
Championship favorites and picks
– Jeff Gluck’s Championship 4: Briscoe and Hamlin (JGR), joined by Logano and Blaney (Penske). He leans Penske’s consistency and strength on the flatter tracks to carry the title, predicting a fourth straight Penske championship with Logano gripping the trophy.
– Jordan Bianchi’s Championship 4: Bell, Briscoe, Blaney, and Larson (Hendrick Motorsports). He underscores Bell’s strong performance at Phoenix and the team’s capability to deliver when it counts. He also keeps Larson in the mix, noting the champion’s potential to surge in the playoffs and win a second title.
Predictions for Darlington and standout performers
– Darlington favorite: Jeff points to William Byron as a strong contender given his performance and strength at Darlington, though the race often hinges on long-run strategy. He also highlights Chase Briscoe as a dangerous dark horse, noting his improved car and success here last year.
– Darlington long shots: Jeff cites Erik Jones as a solid value pick for a top-10 finish, with +210 odds for a top-10; Jones is a two-time Southern 500 winner who can make noise if the car is right. Jordan, meanwhile, views Kyle Busch as a genuine long shot who could defy expectations with the right setup, given his past strong finishes at Darlington.
How to watch
– Race: Cook Out Southern 500
– Track: Darlington Raceway, Darlington, South Carolina
– When: Sunday, August 31, 6 p.m. ET
– Channel: USA Network and HBO Max
Summary and value for fans
– The opening race of the playoffs at Darlington sets the tone for a wide-open postseason with multiple contenders capable of delivering a championship run. The mix of flatter, shorter tracks and the traditional high-speed ovals will test teams differently, and the dynamic between Logano, Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Briscoe, Blaney, and the Hendrick cohort will be fascinating to watch as the field narrows toward Phoenix, and eventually Homestead next year. Expect strategic pit decisions, late-race drama, and a playoff push that keeps several title favorites in contention through the early rounds.
Additional notes to enhance coverage
– If you’re new to the playoffs, remember the four-round format: three races per round in the first three rounds, with the field gradually narrowing until the final four compete for the championship at the end of the season. The track mix this year makes the early rounds especially unpredictable, so any driver with strong pace and solid racecraft on diverse surfaces has a path to the Championship 4.