Data from ESPN’s SP+ advanced ranking system highlights a striking trend in college football: the gap between elite programs and their less-favored counterparts has diminished significantly in 2025. This trend has led to an increase in unexpected outcomes and “upsets,” creating a sense of unpredictability in the build-up to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The SP+ metric, which evaluates efficiency in offense, defense, and special teams, suggests that the distinction between the top-ranked team and those in the late teens is narrower than in previous seasons. According to Bud Elliott, the current evaluation shows the top team—Ohio State—ranked with an SP+ score of 27.6, while the 17th-ranked LSU stands at 19.5. This indicates that, on a neutral field, Ohio State would only be expected to beat LSU by a single touchdown. In comparison, just a few years prior in 2019, this gap was measured at three scores, illustrating a remarkable shift in competitive balance.
The competition doesn’t only tighten at the top. The rankings for teams positioned from fifth to fifteenth are strikingly close, with Texas A&M holding the fifth spot at 22.2 and six teams—including Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Missouri, and others—ranked within a single point of each other. Moreover, prominent teams like Georgia, Alabama, USC, and Miami are all clustered closely as well, with ratings ranging from 20.5 to 20.8. This reinforces the idea that the overall talent and competitive abilities across the board have leveled out considerably.
The implications of this close ranking are profound. Expect a season filled with thrilling matches that could easily flip in favor of underdog teams. Notable upcoming encounters such as Notre Dame projected to beat USC by just three points and Alabama expected to narrowly edge out Tennessee by two points exemplify this unpredictability.
As college football continues to evolve with changes like NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) regulations, teams ranked further down are now showcasing enhanced abilities and competitiveness, which stands in stark contrast to prior seasons. This environment fosters not only excitement but allows for a landscape where three-loss teams might still contend for playoff spots.
Ultimately, fans can look forward to a season characterized by upsets and an increased number of tightly contested matchups, something that embodies the spirit and unpredictability that makes college football so beloved. The upcoming weeks promise to deliver on those expectations, making each kickoff an event of its own.