Musk’s Robot Vision: Can Tesla Really Add $20 Trillion?

Tesla’s stock saw an increase on Monday as Elon Musk highlighted the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots.

Musk stated on social media that Tesla plans to produce “genuinely useful humanoid robots” for internal use next year, with hopes for mass production for external companies by 2026. Earlier this year during a shareholder meeting, Musk had projected that the Optimus robots would enter limited production by 2025, estimating that over 1,000 would be operational within Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are on the factory floor, although the specific tasks they perform remain undisclosed.

Musk suggested that these robots could add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market value, although they won’t be available for purchase until late 2025 and are expected to be priced between $20,000 and $30,000.

The definition of “genuinely useful” in regard to these robots is open to interpretation. Previous demonstrations have not impressed observers, including a recent instance in May where a video showed an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which appeared to have been manually controlled by someone off-screen.

Analysts have expressed skepticism, noting that Tesla’s promotional tactics have sometimes involved embellishment, such as debuting the Optimus robot project in 2021 featuring a dancer in a robot costume. Craig Irwin, an analyst at MKM, remarked that achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 seems optimistic, especially given the challenges of competing with established robotics firms like Boston Dynamics.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda, Apptronik, and Chinese companies such as Dongfeng Motor and Nio, both of which are exploring humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics for use in manufacturing. BMW has also been utilizing humanoid robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure at its facilities since early this year.

Following Musk’s announcements, Tesla’s stock climbed over 3% on Monday. After a notable recovery in recent months, shares are roughly flat for the year. The company is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is anticipated to discuss updates on the delayed robotaxi project.

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