Musk’s Robot Revolution: Will Tesla Soar or Stumble?

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Tesla’s stock experienced a rise on Monday as Elon Musk continued to emphasize the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk stated on X that Tesla plans to have functioning humanoid robots in low production for internal use by next year, with hopes for higher production levels for other companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk indicated that the development of the Optimus robot would enter limited production in 2025, projecting that over 1,000 units would be operational at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are present on the factory floor, although Tesla has not disclosed their specific tasks.

Musk had previously suggested that the introduction of these robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization. However, the robots are not expected to be available for sale until late 2025, with pricing anticipated between $20,000 and $30,000.

There is some ambiguity regarding Musk’s characterization of the robots as “genuinely useful,” as past demonstrations have faced criticism. In May, Tesla was accused of showcasing a video that misleadingly presented an Optimus robot folding a shirt, which was actually being manipulated by an off-screen operator.

Tesla has a history of using dramatic presentations to introduce its robots, having infamously launched the Optimus project in 2021 with a person dancing inside a robot suit.

Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM commented on Yahoo Finance that Tesla’s ambition to produce a sentient humanoid robot by 2025 appears unrealistic, especially given their past presentations. Irwin noted that competing with established companies like Boston Dynamics may prove challenging, as current demonstrations from Tesla seem outdated.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda and Apptronik in Japan. Chinese firms, such as Dongfeng Motor and Nio, are also testing humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics in their production facilities, while BMW has integrated humanoid robots developed by Figure into its operations.

On Monday, Tesla’s stock rose over 3% following Musk’s remarks. Year-to-date, shares have remained relatively stable after experiencing a significant rebound over the last two months.

Tesla is set to announce its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the long-awaited robotaxi project.

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