Musk’s Robot Revolution: Could Tesla’s Humanoids Reshape Market Value?

Tesla stock experienced an increase on Monday as Elon Musk highlighted the prospective value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk took to X to announce that Tesla plans to have genuinely functional humanoid robots in limited production for internal use by next year, with a goal of broader production for other companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk indicated that the Optimus robot would enter limited production in 2025, projecting that over 1,000 units would be operational at Tesla facilities by the end of that year. Although two robots are currently deployed on the factory floor, Tesla has not disclosed their specific roles.

Musk previously speculated that the introduction of these robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market value, with sales of the robots expected to start around the end of 2025 at a price range of $20,000 to $30,000.

The definition of “genuinely useful” robots in Musk’s statements remains somewhat unclear, especially considering that past demonstrations have not always succeeded in showcasing the robots’ capabilities convincingly. For example, in May, Tesla was accused of presenting a video where an Optimus appeared to fold a shirt, but it was reported that a person off-screen was actually controlling the action.

Tesla has faced scrutiny over its product demonstrations before, notably introducing the Optimus robot project in 2021 with a promotional event featuring a dancer in a robot suit.

MKM analyst Craig Irwin commented on the challenges Tesla faces, noting the competition from established players like Boston Dynamics and other companies such as Honda and Apptronik. Additionally, several Chinese automakers, including Dongfeng Motor and Nio, are testing humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics, while BMW has been utilizing humanoid robots from Figure in its operations since late January.

On the news of Musk’s comments, Tesla’s stock rose more than 3% on Monday. Year-to-date, shares have remained relatively stable, following a significant recovery over the past two months. Tesla is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is anticipated to provide an update on the delayed robotaxi launch.

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