Musk’s Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Really Deliver?

Tesla shares are seeing an uptick on Monday as CEO Elon Musk continues to highlight the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk stated on social media platform X that Tesla plans to have “genuinely useful humanoid robots” in limited production for internal use next year, with hopes for larger-scale production for external clients by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in April, Musk mentioned that the company’s Optimus robots would enter limited production in 2025. He anticipates over 1,000 of these robots will be operational at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two of the robots are already in use at the factory, though specific tasks have not been disclosed.

Musk has speculated that the humanoid robots could add as much as $20 trillion to the company’s market capitalization, although sales are not expected to begin until late 2025, with a projected price range of $20,000 to $30,000 per unit.

There is some skepticism surrounding the practicality of these robots. Critics point out that previous demonstrations have not lived up to expectations. For instance, in a May showcase, a video claimed to feature an Optimus robot folding a shirt, but observers suggested it was actually controlled by an operator hidden from view.

Furthermore, Musk’s previous efforts to unveil the robot have been criticized. In 2021, Tesla introduced the Optimus project with a demonstration involving a person dressed in a robotic suit.

Analyst Craig Irwin from MKM echoed this skepticism, questioning the feasibility of releasing a truly sentient humanoid robot by 2025 and suggesting that Tesla is lagging behind established competitors, such as Boston Dynamics. Irwin emphasized that Tesla’s displayed technology seems outdated compared to industry standards.

In addition to competition from Boston Dynamics, Tesla will face challenges from Honda, Apptronik, and Chinese firms like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are exploring humanoid robots for manufacturing. BMW has also incorporated humanoid robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure into its operations since January.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla’s stock increased by more than 3% on Monday. The shares have remained relatively stable year-to-date after experiencing a significant rebound in the past two months. Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is expected to provide updates on the anticipated rollout of the delayed robotaxi service.

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