Musk’s Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Outpace the Competition?

Tesla shares experienced an uptick on Monday as CEO Elon Musk continues to highlight the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk made an announcement on X, stating that Tesla plans to have genuinely useful humanoid robots in limited production for internal use next year, with hopes of scaling up production for external companies by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in April, Musk indicated that the Optimus robot series could enter limited production by 2025, with projections of over 1,000 robots operational at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two robots are stationed on the factory floor, although Tesla has not disclosed their specific functions.

Musk previously suggested that the robots could significantly increase the company’s market value, potentially adding $20 trillion. The first sales of these robots are not anticipated until late 2025, with price estimates falling between $20,000 and $30,000.

However, the level of utility attributed to these robots remains uncertain. Demonstrations to date have not been overly convincing; for instance, a prior video of an Optimus robot folding a shirt was criticized as it reportedly featured a person operating it from off-screen.

Musk’s vision to deliver a “sentient humanoid robot by 2025” has drawn skepticism. Roth MKM analyst Craig Irwin remarked that, given past presentations—including the 2021 debut involving a performer in a costume—the company may struggle to catch up with competitors like Boston Dynamics, whose technology is viewed as more advanced.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda, Apptronik, and Chinese firms like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are experimenting with humanoid robots on their production lines. BMW has also incorporated humanoid robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure in its operations since early this year.

On Monday, following Musk’s comments, Tesla stock increased by over 3%. Year-to-date, shares are nearly flat after recovering significantly in the past couple of months. The company is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where further updates on the anticipated robotaxi launch are expected from Musk.

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