Musk’s Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Dominate the Humanoid Space?

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Tesla’s stock experienced an increase on Monday as Elon Musk continued to highlight the potential value of the company’s humanoid robots. Musk shared on social media that Tesla plans to have truly functional humanoid robots in limited production for internal use next year, with hopes of ramping up production for external clients by 2026.

During Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk mentioned that the robot project, named Optimus, would move into limited production by 2025, expecting over 1,000 units to be operational at Tesla by the end of that year. Currently, two of these robots are reportedly functioning on the factory floor, but the company has not disclosed their specific tasks.

Musk even speculated that the humanoid robots could add approximately $20 trillion to Tesla’s market cap, although they won’t be available for purchase until late 2025 at a projected price range of $20,000 to $30,000.

The term “genuinely useful,” as used by Musk, remains somewhat ambiguous. Previous demonstrations of the robot have faced skepticism; notably, Tesla was accused in May of showcasing a video where an Optimus robot appeared to fold a shirt, which was allegedly being operated by a human off-screen.

This is not the first time Tesla has faced criticism over its robot demonstrations. The initial unveiling of the Optimus project in 2021 featured a person dressed in a robot costume dancing, leading to doubts about the project’s authenticity.

Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM expressed skepticism about achieving a sentient humanoid robot by 2025, pointing out Tesla’s past marketing strategies. He noted that the company’s current offerings appear outdated compared to the advancements made by competitors like Boston Dynamics.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla will compete with Honda and Apptronik in the humanoid robot space. Chinese companies like Dongfeng Motor and Nio are also exploring humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics for use in manufacturing, while BMW has started integrating robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure into its operations.

Musk’s remarks on the potential of humanoid robots contributed to a more than 3% rise in Tesla’s stock on Monday. Year to date, shares have remained stable after a significant recovery over the past two months. Investors are looking ahead to Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report on Tuesday, where Musk is anticipated to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi launch.

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