Musk’s Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Deliver on Its $20 Trillion Promise?

Tesla’s stock saw an increase on Monday as CEO Elon Musk highlighted the company’s potential value in humanoid robots. Musk stated on social media platform X that Tesla plans to have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for internal use by next year, with hopes of higher production levels for external companies by 2026.

Previously, during Tesla’s annual meeting in April, Musk projected that the Optimus robots would enter limited production by 2025, with an expectation of more than 1,000 units operational at Tesla by year’s end. Currently, two robots are present on the factory floor, although Tesla has not disclosed their specific functions.

Musk suggested that these robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market capitalization, while the robots are not slated for sale until late 2025, anticipated to have price tags ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

However, the term “genuinely useful” remains ambiguous as previous demonstrations have faced criticism. A notable instance occurred in May when Tesla was accused of misleadingly presenting a robot folding a shirt, which was allegedly performed by a person off-screen. This is not the first time Tesla has received scrutiny for its robot showcases, with the initial unveiling of the Optimus project in 2021 featuring a person in a robot costume dancing.

Analyst Craig Irwin from Roth MKM questioned the company’s ability to reach its ambitious goals, noting that Tesla’s current offerings seem outdated compared to competitors like Boston Dynamics. The landscape of humanoid robot development includes firms such as Hyundai’s Boston Dynamics, Japan’s Honda, and Apptronik, as well as Chinese automakers Dongfeng Motor and Nio, who are integrating humanoid robots from UBTech Robotics into their production lines, and BMW, which has been using Figure’s humanoid robots since early 2023.

Following Musk’s remarks, Tesla stock gained over 3% on Monday, though shares have remained relatively stable throughout the year after a significant rebound over the past two months. Tesla is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, where Musk is likely to address updates regarding the delayed robotaxi rollout.

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