Musk’s Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Deliver?

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Tesla’s stock saw an increase on Monday as Elon Musk continued to highlight the potential of the company’s humanoid robots. On social media platform X, Musk stated that Tesla plans to have “genuinely useful humanoid robots” in low production for internal use next year, with hopes for higher production for external companies by 2026.

In a previous shareholder meeting in April, Musk had mentioned that the Optimus robots would enter limited production in 2025, anticipating that over 1,000 units would be operational at Tesla’s facilities by year-end. Currently, two robots are already present on the factory floor, though their specific tasks have not been disclosed.

Musk has speculated that the introduction of these robots could potentially add $20 trillion to Tesla’s market value. However, the robots are not expected to be available for sale before late 2025, with projected prices ranging from $20,000 to $30,000.

There remains ambiguity regarding what Musk means by “genuinely useful,” as previous product demonstrations have encountered skepticism. For instance, in May, Tesla faced criticism for showcasing a video in which an Optimus appeared to fold a shirt, a feat that was allegedly controlled by a hidden operator.

Critics have pointed out Tesla’s tendency to use dramatic presentations to market their robots. The company first unveiled the Optimus project in 2021 with a performance featuring a dancer in a robot suit.

Industry analysts express doubt about Tesla’s ability to compete with established players like Boston Dynamics. Craig Irwin, an analyst at Roth MKM, remarked that Tesla’s current capabilities seem outdated compared to competitors and called into question the feasibility of delivering a sentient humanoid robot by 2025.

In addition to Boston Dynamics, Tesla faces competition from Honda and Apptronik in Japan, as well as Chinese firms Dongfeng Motor and Nio, which are testing humanoid robots developed by UBTech Robotics. BMW has also integrated humanoid robots from Silicon Valley-based Figure into its operations since the beginning of the year.

On Monday, Tesla’s stock rose over 3% following Musk’s remarks. Shares have remained relatively stable year-to-date after a significant recovery in the past two months. Tesla is expected to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, with Musk likely to provide updates on the delayed robotaxi project.

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