Illustration of Musk's Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Deliver?

Musk’s Robot Revolution: Can Tesla Deliver?

Tesla’s stock experienced a rise on Monday as Elon Musk continues to highlight the promise of the company’s humanoid robots.

Musk made headlines with his statement on social media platform X, asserting that Tesla aims to produce genuinely useful humanoid robots for internal use by next year, with plans for higher production for other firms by 2026. At Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in April, Musk indicated that the Optimus robot would enter limited production by 2025, predicting that over 1,000 robots would be operational at Tesla by year’s end. Currently, two robots are already on the factory floor, though Tesla has not disclosed the tasks they are performing.

Musk further speculated that this development could contribute an impressive $20 trillion to the company’s market value, although the robots are not expected to hit the market until late 2025, with price points anticipated between $20,000 and $30,000.

There is some ambiguity surrounding Musk’s characterization of the robots as “genuinely useful.” Previous demonstrations have faced skepticism; for instance, a May video showing an Optimus folding a shirt was alleged to have been manipulated, with a person operating the robot off-screen.

Moreover, Tesla has previously faced criticism for its promotional tactics. In 2021, the company unveiled its Optimus robot concept with a performer dressed in a robot costume, raising doubts about the authenticity of their innovations.

Craig Irwin, an analyst at Roth MKM, expressed skepticism regarding the timeline for a “sentient humanoid robot” by 2025, noting that Tesla’s demonstration appeared outdated compared to competitors such as Boston Dynamics, which has shown advanced technology since 2014.

Tesla will face competition not only from Boston Dynamics and Hyundai but also from Japan’s Honda, Apptronik, and Chinese manufacturers like Dongfeng Motor and Nio, both of which are testing humanoid robots in production environments. Additionally, BMW has been utilizing humanoid robots developed by Silicon Valley’s Figure in their facilities since January.

Following Musk’s statements, Tesla’s stock rose more than 3% on Monday. The shares have remained relatively stable year-to-date, after a significant rebound over the past two months. The company is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, during which Musk is expected to provide updates on the timeline for the anticipated robotaxi launch.

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