Brandon Moreno is set to make a triumphant return to his homeland of Mexico City on February 28, headlining the UFC Fight Night against the rising English flyweight Lone’er Kavanagh in a five-round main event at the Arena CDMX. This exciting matchup was put together following the withdrawal of Asu Almabaev, allowing Kavanagh to step up from the undercard to face the former champion, which could potentially reshape the landscape of the 125lb division.
Moreno enters the fight as the betting favorite, with major sportsbooks generally pricing him between -190 and -225 on the moneyline, suggesting he has approximately a 65-70% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Kavanagh, who is positioned as an underdog, is listed around +160 to +185, giving an enticing opportunity for those betting against the odds.
According to the latest odds, traders believe the fight may go to a decision rather than end by a quick finish, with Moreno by decision being the most likely outcome. Conversely, Kavanagh’s pathway to victory is viewed as primarily through KO/TKO.
This bout is crucial for Moreno, who made history as the first Mexican-born UFC champion and is a two-time flyweight titleholder. He is looking to bounce back following a December knockout defeat to Tatsuro Taira, which halted his momentum toward a title shot.
For Kavanagh, this is an enormous opportunity in his career. The London-based fighter boasts a record of 9-1 and is currently ranked No. 15 in the flyweight division. He has secured four knockouts in his career and recently earned decision wins over Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa. However, his previous match ended in a knockout loss to Charles Johnson in Shanghai last year.
Stepping into the cage on short notice, Kavanagh has the chance to make a significant impact by overcoming a former champion in front of a hostile crowd. British media outlets have characterized this as a high-risk, high-reward scenario for the young fighter.
Moreno’s extensive experience in five-round fights, coupled with his history against ranked opponents and the advantage of competing in his home city, positions him well for this contest. Kavanagh brings youthful energy and speed as a live underdog, but the challenge against a proven warrior like Moreno underscores the difficulty he faces in this fight. As the fight approaches, the betting market heavily favors Moreno by decision, with Kavanagh’s knockout odds presenting the most appealing option for bettors daring to anticipate an upset in Mexico City.