News10NBC’s First Alert Weather Team has issued a Yellow Alert for Monday afternoon and evening due to increasing potential for strong storms. The most significant threats include gusty winds and heavy downpours. The timing is uncertain, but the strongest storms are anticipated to develop after 4 p.m., continuing into the evening. This weather system is expected to significantly impact areas from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes.
Last Sunday offered delightful weather with sunlight, clouds, and temperatures reaching the low 80s. After a picturesque sunset, Western New York will experience increasing cloud cover post-9 p.m. This marks the approach of a warm front, which will elevate dew points into the 60s overnight, maintaining mild temperatures with lows around 64 degrees. There is a possibility of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially near Lake Erie, with winds shifting to a southwesterly direction at 10 to 20 mph. Areas south of Rochester might experience wind gusts close to 30 mph.
Residents should anticipate a wet Monday morning commute with scattered showers, as temperatures in the mid-60s rise to an afternoon high of 79 degrees. The windy conditions will persist throughout the day due to strong winds aloft being drawn to the surface. As a cold front approaches, enhanced warmth and moisture from southwesterly winds will increase humidity and potentially trigger strong thunderstorms. The threat of severe weather has gained momentum recently, with models showing increasing shear and convective energy. The exact timing for these storms will be refined as further data becomes available.
Current projections suggest the strongest storms will emerge post-4 p.m., with potential for gusty winds and downpours continuing late into the evening. With significant wind shear, there is a possibility of mild rotation in some storms. Rainfall estimates suggest totals between 0.25 and 0.50 inches could fall by Tuesday morning, with Erie County, Ontario County, and southern Wayne County possibly seeing higher amounts ranging from 1.0 to 1.20 inches.
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