As September arrives, the MLB playoff chase is reigniting with a mix of heavy favorites and surprising long shots. Our updated schedule-watch focuses on the first two weeks of September, breaking down every contender with updated FanGraphs playoff odds, strength of schedule, and a pivotal two-week window. We’ve included a key series for each club and mapped out the likely turning points as teams race toward October.
American League
Detroit Tigers
– Record: 80-58
– Playoff odds: 99.9%
– Strength of schedule: .496
– Early September schedule: Mets (Sept. 1-3 at home), White Sox (Sept. 5-7 at home), Yankees (Sept. 9-11 on the road), Marlins (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 9-11 at the Yankees
– Outlook: A comfortable lead in the standings gives Detroit some breathing room, though the Tigers still have to navigate two postseason contenders on a road trip to New York. Their focus remains securing the top seed in the American League while continuing to build depth behind Tarik Skubal’s latest quality start.
Toronto Blue Jays
– Record: 79-58
– Playoff odds: 99.8%
– Strength of schedule: .507
– Early September schedule: Reds (Sept. 1-3 on the road), Yankees (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Astros (Sept. 9-11 at home), Orioles (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 5-7 at the Yankees, Sept. 9-11 vs. the Astros
– Outlook: The Jays’ margin for error is slim—division seeding and a potential first-round bye remain on the line. Consecutive tough series against the Yankees and Astros will test their ability to stay ahead of the competition in both the division and the league standings.
New York Yankees
– Record: 76-61
– Playoff odds: 98.9%
– Strength of schedule: .495
– Early September schedule: Astros (Sept. 2-4 on the road), Blue Jays (Sept. 5-7 at home), Tigers (Sept. 9-11 at home), Red Sox (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 2-4 at the Astros
– Outlook: A challenging road back into the division race and a potential first-round bye ride on the next few series. After sweeping the Nationals, the next stretch against the Astros and Blue Jays will define whether they can sustain momentum or stumble in a tightly packed AL.
Boston Red Sox
– Record: 76-62
– Playoff odds: 93.9%
– Strength of schedule: .505
– Early September schedule: Guardians (Sept. 1-3 at home), Diamondbacks (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Athletics (Sept. 8-10 on the road), Yankees (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 12-14 vs. the Yankees
– Outlook: After taking three of four in the Bronx, Boston sits in a strong position to secure a playoff spot, with a favorable slate surrounding a high-profile test versus New York. Rested, the Red Sox will aim to keep the pressure on their rivals in the race for postseason sequencing.
Houston Astros
– Record: 75-62
– Playoff odds: 88.4%
– Strength of schedule: .510
– Early September schedule: Angels (Sept. 1 at home), Yankees (Sept. 2-4 at home), Rangers (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Blue Jays (Sept. 9-11 on the road), Braves (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 9-11 at the Blue Jays
– Outlook: A big road swing that includes a slate against Toronto and a mid-September trip to Toronto could influence the division race. The Astros’ depth will be tested as they chase a strong seed and a easier path through October.
Seattle Mariners
– Record: 73-64
– Playoff odds: 87%
– Strength of schedule: .494
– Early September schedule: Rays (Sept. 1-3 on the road), Braves (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Cardinals (Sept. 8-10 at home), Angels (Sept. 11-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 11-14 vs. the Angels
– Outlook: Seattle faces a manageable stretch before a tougher finish, with a crucial four-game homestand against the Angels that could shape the West Division outlook. A strong showing could keep them within striking distance of the top spot in the AL West.
Texas Rangers
– Record: 71-67
– Playoff odds: 14.2%
– Strength of schedule: .507
– Early September schedule: Diamondbacks (Sept. 1-3 on the road), Astros (Sept. 5-7 at home), Brewers (Sept. 8-10 at home), Mets (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 5-7 vs. the Astros
– Outlook: A late surge is possible, but the road gets tougher with six games against Houston to start September. Ground to make up in the division stands and a lack of remaining head-to-heads with the Mariners complicate a playoff push, though a big series against Houston presents a real chance to swing the race.
Kansas City Royals
– Record: 70-67
– Playoff odds: 10.7%
– Strength of schedule: .499
– Early September schedule: Angels (Sept. 2-4 at home), Twins (Sept. 5-7 at home), Guardians (Sept. 8-11 on the road), Phillies (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 8-11 at Guardians
– Outlook: Kansas City is still in the hunt in a crowded AL, needing a strong finish against divisional rivals to gain ground for a wild-card berth. A solid September start against the Angels and Twins will be pivotal.
Cleveland Guardians
– Record: 68-67
– Playoff odds: 5.2%
– Strength of schedule: .493
– Early September schedule: Red Sox (Sept. 1-3 on the road), Rays (Sept. 4-7 on the road), Royals (Sept. 8-11 at home), White Sox (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 4-7 at Royals
– Outlook: A grind-it-out month looms, with a heavy slate that could define whether Cleveland can stage a late surge. The four-game set against Kansas City is a critical barometer for any miracle run.
National League
Milwaukee Brewers
– Record: 85-53
– Playoff odds: 100%
– Strength of schedule: .496
– Early September schedule: Phillies (Sept. 1, 3-4 at home), Pirates (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Rangers (Sept. 8-10 on the road), Cardinals (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 1, 3-4 vs. Phillies
– Outlook: Milwaukee is positioned for a comfortable divisional cushion and views a potential wild-card bye as a realistic goal. They’ll use the early series against Philadelphia to continue building a strong postseason profile.
Philadelphia Phillies
– Record: 79-58
– Playoff odds: 100%
– Strength of schedule: .508
– Early September schedule: Brewers (Sept. 1, 3-4 on the road), Marlins (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Mets (Sept. 8-11 at home), Royals (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 8-11 vs. Mets
– Outlook: A rematch with the Mets in Philadelphia will test the Phillies’ readiness after last season’s NLDS. They’ll aim to maintain their pace and lock in a favorable postseason path.
Los Angeles Dodgers
– Record: 78-59
– Playoff odds: 99.9%
– Strength of schedule: .494
– Early September schedule: Pirates (Sept. 2-4 on the road), Orioles (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Rockies (Sept. 8-10 at home), Giants (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 12-14 vs. Giants
– Outlook: A quick, largely favorable first half gives way to a tougher closing stretch, but the Dodgers’ depth and recent form should help them weather any bumps and gear up for October.
Chicago Cubs
– Record: 78-59
– Playoff odds: 99.7%
– Strength of schedule: .497
– Early September schedule: Braves (Sept. 1-3 at home), Nationals (Sept. 5-7 at home), Braves (Sept. 8-10 on the road), Rays (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 1-3, Sept. 8-10 vs. Braves
– Outlook: A big test against Atlanta early in September will reveal how well Chicago can handle top-tier competition while holding a tight lead in the division.
San Diego Padres
– Record: 76-61
– Playoff odds: 99.3%
– Strength of schedule: .462
– Early September schedule: Orioles (Sept. 1-3 at home), Rockies (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Reds (Sept. 8-10 at home), Rockies (Sept. 11-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 5-7, Sept. 11-14 vs. the Rockies
– Outlook: San Diego’s schedule favors a late surge as they chase a division title, with two trips to face Colorado offering a chance to pile up wins while staying ahead of the wild-card pack.
New York Mets
– Record: 73-64
– Playoff odds: 93.1%
– Strength of schedule: .499
– Early September schedule: Tigers (Sept. 1-3 on the road), Reds (Sept. 5-7 on the road), Phillies (Sept. 8-11 on the road), Rangers (Sept. 12-14 at home)
– Key series: Sept. 5-7 at Reds
– Outlook: A demanding road swing through Detroit, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia tests their resilience, but the Mets still hold a strong wild-card position and a favorable path through September.
Cincinnati Reds
– Record: 69-68
– Playoff odds: 4%
– Strength of schedule: .518
– Early September schedule: Blue Jays (Sept. 1-3 at home), Mets (Sept. 5-7 at home), Padres (Sept. 8-10 on the road), Athletics (Sept. 12-14 on the road)
– Key series: Sept. 5-7 vs. Mets
– Outlook: It’s an all-hands-on-deck moment for Cincinnati, with the Mets as a direct rival for the final wild-card spot. A strong finish is essential if they’re to turn a 4% odds into a postseason dream.
Summary and perspective
The next two weeks will crystallize who’s truly in the mix and who’s merely along for the ride. Favorites sit in strong positions, but a handful of clubs with lower odds—like the Rangers and Guardians on the American League side—remain plausible late-season surprises if they can navigate a favorable stretch and catch fire at the right time. For fans, this is a crucial window to witness late-season drama, big series, and potential upsets that could reshape October’s field. Expect tight races, sharp strategic decisions, and plenty of pioneer performances as September unfolds.
Optional value add
– A quick betting-angle note: teams with the strongest early-September schedules against teams under .500 often gain momentum, while those facing multiple contenders back-to-back will need to maximize intra-division wins to secure a bye or avoid a wild-card scenario.
– If you’re following breakout stories, watch for teams turning to bullpen-based leverage in late innings and tactical bullpen games as managers try to unlock wins in packed schedules.
Overall takeaway
With a mix of juggernauts and hungry contenders, September is shaping up as a pivotal proving ground. The two-week snapshot provides a clear picture of who can sustain excellence, who can spark a miracle run, and where the playoff field might truly land come October.