As the regular baseball season draws to a close, the playoff picture remains tantalizingly unresolved in both leagues. The final week promises to deliver exciting competition as the best and worst teams vie for positions, influenced by their recent performances. Our power rankings illuminate the dynamic changes occurring across the board.
We have employed a modified Elo rating system, familiar to chess enthusiasts and those acquainted with FiveThirtyEight’s erstwhile sports analyses, to determine team strength. This system reacts to recent performances while avoiding the tendency to overly prioritize them. By weighing raw Elo ranks against regressed playoff odds, which increase in importance as the season advances, we present the “Power Score” as a reflection of team strength.
The Brewers, Mariners, and Phillies emerge as the top tier of teams, each with secured playoff spots. The Brewers are eyeing the NL top seed, though they face challenges due to Brandon Woodruff’s injury. Meanwhile, the Mariners capitalized on a pivotal series against the Astros, positioning them strongly for a potential division title. The Phillies are on the brink of clinching a first-round bye, which would provide crucial recovery time for Trea Turner.
Tier two contenders, the Yankees and Blue Jays, are locked in a close battle within the AL East. The Yankees’ recent road successes contrast with the Blue Jays’ struggles, though Toronto maintains a slight cushion due to tiebreaker advantages. Both teams are navigating injuries to key players with hopes of stabilizing their playoff berths.
The third tier features solid contenders like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Padres. The Red Sox hold a precarious position in the AL Wild Card standings, while the Dodgers appear poised to secure another division title amid Clayton Kershaw’s impending retirement. The Cubs and Padres are grappling with performance inconsistencies as they prepare for postseason opportunities.
In tier four, the Guardians and Tigers are embroiled in a critical clash that could redefine the AL Central race. The Astros, once playoff mainstays, now find themselves on the outside looking in, hampered by key player injuries. Their remaining games are pivotal as they attempt a last-minute comeback.
The NL Wild Card race remains fiercely competitive, with the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Mets embroiled in a tight contest. The Reds’ recent sweep of the Cubs has pushed them ahead, while the Diamondbacks and Mets face uphill battles as they hope for favorable outcomes in the season’s final games.
Teams with negligible playoff odds, like the Marlins and Orioles, are now more focused on disrupting the plans of playoff hopefuls, potentially altering postseason trajectories. Meanwhile, the Rays, Giants, and Cardinals exist in no man’s land, unlikely to see playoff action but poised to shape the outcomes for others.
Finally, a group of teams in tier eight, like the Nationals, White Sox, Angels, Twins, and Rockies, are already looking ahead to future seasons. For the Colorado Rockies, a slight silver lining emerged as they avoided setting a negative record, and the Angels found cause for celebration in Mike Trout’s milestone home run.
The conclusion of the regular season is laden with hope and tension as teams strategize for what lies ahead in October’s playoff picture.