The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter weather predictions, indicating warmer conditions for the D.C. region. The forecast suggests a “slight lean” toward above-average temperatures this winter in the Mid-Atlantic area.
Andrew Ellis, a professor of meteorology and climate science at Virginia Tech, emphasized that the likelihood of experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures in December, January, and February stands at around 40%. Typically, the winter temperatures in the region hover between the low 20s and the high 40s.
In terms of precipitation, Ellis noted that totals are expected to remain within the normal range. However, predicting snowfall amounts is more complex due to the reliance on coastal storms, which are notoriously difficult to forecast. He explained that the impact of one or two coastal storms can significantly alter seasonal snowfall totals, making it a challenge to determine the overall winter experience.
Winter in D.C. is often marked by weather conditions that lead to school closures and transportation disruptions, primarily due to freezing rain and sleet rather than heavy snowfall. Ellis remarked that the Mid-Atlantic region often experiences a mixed bag of winter weather, influenced by the Atlantic Ocean, which complicates the typical cold air and storm dynamic found in other areas of the country.
The anticipated winter conditions are also influenced by La Niña, characterized by cooler Pacific Ocean waters. Ellis indicated that La Niña usually corresponds to warmer and drier weather across the Southern tier of the United States, extending into the Mid-Atlantic region, shaping this winter’s forecast.
As winter approaches, residents can prepare for a unique set of challenges and surprises, as the region’s weather patterns continue to evolve and remain unpredictable.