Starting with Kodai Senga on Monday night, the Mets are at a crossroads in how they assemble and deploy their rotation. David Stearns, Mets president of baseball operations, has steered the club toward bargain-priced pitching, preferring to fix the rotation without breaking the bank. But in the season’s second half, that strategy has borne out as problematic even for arms by market standards considered reasonable, as homegrown pieces have carried more of the load while the club’s high-priced options have not delivered as hoped.
Senga’s latest test came Monday against the Phillies in a key NL East showdown, and it arrived with regular rest instead of the extra day he often enjoys. Since his July return from a hamstring injury, Senga has been a puzzle, posting a 5.23 ERA over his last seven starts and averaging just 4.43 innings per outing. It’s not the ace level the Mets hoped for when they signed him to a five-year, $75 million contract, but he remains a fragment of the larger challenge in stabilizing a rotation that has been assembled on a budget. The Mets could still lean on Senga to pitch to the value of his price tag as they piece together the rest of the season.
Stearns may face similar scrutiny with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, the two principal winter acquisitions. Manaea, three years and $75 million, has failed to re-create the durability that carried him to a postseason push last year, returning from an oblique injury but posting a 5.15 ERA in eight starts since coming back. Montas, a two-year, $34 million guarantee, has similarly underwhelmed: a lat strain sidelined him for months, he struggled through seven starts (6.68 ERA) before landing back on the injured list and awaiting a possible Tommy John decision.
Yet there is a brighter thread in the Mets’ rotation narrative. A weekend in Atlanta underscored what a contending team should look like when the depth pieces click. Nolan McLean, David Peterson and Clay Holmes combined for 19 innings, allowing 12 hits and six runs while striking out 19 and walking six. That trio posted a 2.84 ERA for the series, helping New York take two of three from the Braves and giving manager Carlos Mendoza a window of optimism as he navigates a 16-game stretch.
Peterson has been the steadying force all year, logging about six innings per start with a 3.18 ERA over 25 appearances, placing him among MLB’s top 20 in workload efficiency. McLean, in only his second major-league start, showed why the Mets had such confidence in him as a prospect, while Holmes, a reliever who has eaten into his workload this season, delivered a longer outing that helped ease the bullpen strain. Peterson described the momentum as contagious, noting that a strong start tends to lift the next guy in the rotation as well as the bullpen.
Stearns will likely need to keep innovating. He bypassed a significant rotation upgrade at the trade deadline, but the weekend triumph in Atlanta has him pondering a potential sixth starter during the 16-game stretch. The natural backup plan would be another Syracuse call-up, perhaps to supplement McLean’s rapid ascension with Brandon Sproat or Jonah Tong, or both, depending on how the next few turns play out. If Senga and Manaea continue to trend downward, the Mets will have to rely on internal options and depth down the line.
Summary: The Mets’ budgeting strategy for starting pitching has produced mixed results, with key free-agent additions underperforming relative to expectations while internal arms have risen to the moment when they count most. A productive weekend in Atlanta showed the upside of homegrown contributors and a bent but resilient bullpen, giving New York something to build on as it navigates a grueling 16-game stretch and determines how to round out its rotation for the remainder of the season.
Additional comments and value add:
– The current dynamic underscores the importance of depth in pitching, especially in a division race. If Star pitchers can settle into more consistent routines, the Mets’ overall resilience could translate into a late-season surge.
– A practical path forward appears to be leveraging Syracuse options for a six-man approach during hot stretches, while monitoring Senga, Manaea, and Montas for signs of rebound or need for longer-term adjustments.
– Positive takeaway: the emergence of Peterson, McLean, and Holmes as reliable contributors provides a blueprint for how the Mets can win games by quality starts and longer outings, even when some marquee acquisitions falter.
Overall assessment: The Mets possess the building blocks to endure a rocky patch, but continued improvement from their high-priced rotation pieces and sustained success from the internal trio will determine whether this season becomes a late-charging narrative or another near-miss. The next several weeks will reveal how Stearns balances risk, depth, and opportunity as the rotation heads toward the stretch run.