The USC Trojans are set to face the Boise State Broncos at the Lahaina Civic Center in Hawaii as part of the Maui Invitational, with tip-off scheduled for approximately 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Trojans come into this matchup favored by 5.5 points against the Broncos, with the moneyline sitting at -230 and a total set at 154.5 points.
In a recent prediction for the game, USC is expected to cover the spread, as they demonstrated resilience in a nail-biting victory against Troy, clinching a win 107-106 after a triple-overtime thriller. However, this hard-fought victory exposed certain vulnerabilities within the Trojans’ offense, which has been described as clunky at times. Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice combined for 41 shots but displayed inefficiencies, indicating a possible reliance on tough jump shots rather than cohesive scoring.
While USC has effective interior scoring options like Ezra Ausar, their overall offensive consistency could be challenged as they face more athletic competitors. A positive note is that USC ranks 11th in free-throw rate, which can provide them stable offense opportunities, especially with players like Ausar, Baker-Mazara, and Rice frequently getting to the line.
On the defensive end, the Trojans are formidable, boasting significant positional size with a backcourt that includes 6-foot-5 Rice and 6-foot-7 Baker-Mazara. The addition of 7-foot-3 Gabe Dynes provides an additional edge, allowing for versatile defensive strategies. The Trojans excel in forced isolation plays, ranking in the 91st percentile in frequency allowed, which could pose challenges for the Broncos.
Boise State enters the contest looking to build on their recovery from a disappointing season opener against Division II Hawaii Pacific. The Broncos have since rebounded with notable victories over Utah Valley and Wichita State, reigniting hopes for an at-large postseason bid. Their size advantage, with a lineup featuring three 6-foot-7 wings and 6-foot-11 Drew Fielder, is a focal point of their game strategy. Boise State ranks 20th nationally in average height and leverages this to secure strong rebounding and aggressive drives to the free-throw line.
However, concerns linger regarding the Broncos’ backcourt depth and overall shot generation. Lead guard Dylan Andrews, although starting solidly, has limitations due to inconsistent shooting and decision-making. As a result, they lack depth behind him, relying on forwards like 6-foot-7 Javan Buchanan for additional playmaking—something that could hinder their effectiveness against USC’s defensive setup.
As both teams showcase considerable size, this matchup could result in a game dominated by physicality, particularly around the rim. However, USC’s advantages in shot creation and offensive strategy may be pivotal for their success. Despite Boise State’s underdog history—24-15-1 against the spread since 2021—they may struggle to match USC’s guard play and efficiency.
With the Maui Invitational setting known for its conducive scoring environment, betting enthusiasts might approach the total cautiously, yet the allure of high-scoring potential remains strong. Overall, backing USC in this contest seems promising, especially if players exploit defensive mismatches and make the most of available scoring opportunities. The Trojans appear poised for victory, and support for them extends up to -7 on the spread.