The Boston Red Sox will host the Miami Marlins at Fenway Park on Sunday, August 17, 2025. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. EDT and the game will be carried on FDSFL.
The Red Sox will try to complete a sweep of the series after taking the first two games. They’ll send ace Garrett Crochet to the mound, while Janson Junk starts for the Marlins.
Marlins vs Red Sox preview and betting angles
– Pitching matchup: Janson Junk takes the mound for Miami, while Garrett Crochet is on the hill for Boston. Junk has shown resilience in his last two outings, delivering five innings and allowing just three earned runs in each start. Crochet has been excellent for Boston, with standout performances at home and in day games helping his overall metrics this season.
– Recent form and splits: Junk has been better on the road and in day games, which aligns with Sunday daytime conditions at Fenway. Crochet’s home and day-game numbers also trend well, supporting a favorable environment for a lower-scoring game. The two offenses have cooled a bit in August, with Red Sox and Marlins both posting lower ISO numbers this month.
– Offense trends: The Marlins sit around the middle of the league in iso, while Boston sits a touch lower in iso this month. Both teams have seen wRC+ dip modestly in August, making the pitching matchup and ballpark factors more impactful in this one.
– Betting angle and odds: The recommended wager for this game is the under. The latest spread and totals show the Marlins +1.5 at +100 with an 8.5 total, and the Red Sox -1.5 at -121 with the same 8.5 total. Moneylines reflect Boston as the favorite, around -252, with Miami at +202. Opening and live odds can shift, so checking the current numbers is advised.
– Sunday unders concept: A betting angle often discussed with Sunday day games is that the home team may come off a recent overs streak and that line values the potential for a quieter offensive day. In this specific setup, the under has been highlighted as a favorable play given the day-game context and the pitching matchup.
– Practical take: If you’re backing the Under, the combination of two solid pitchers in a daytime setting and both teams’ August offensive dip supports a lower-scoring affair. The matchup also features bullpen depth to bridge late innings without inflating totals.
Summary
– The Red Sox look to complete a series sweep behind Crochet against Junk of the Marlins in a daytime matinee at Fenway. With both offenses showing softer power numbers in August and two strong starters on the mound, the betting focus leans toward a lower-scoring contest, with Under 8.5 as the preferred play.
Notes and value-added observations
– Key matchup to watch: Garrett Crochet’s execution in the daylight and how Miami counters his repertory, particularly late-inning bullpen usage if the game remains tight.
– In-game factors: Day games can bring different timing for hitters and pitchers; fresher arms and a potential gap in offensive rhythm may favor pitchers in this particular matchup.
– Fantasy angle: Target Crochet for quality start potential in daily formats; Junk could provide a solid start with a chance for a win if Miami’s offense supports him.
Overall takeaway
– Look for a pitcher’s duel with limited cascading offense and a strong chance to see a lower-than-expected scoring tally. The Under is the logical betting angle given the stated conditions and recent team trends. If you’re following live odds, be prepared for slight line movement as game day developments unfold.