The Seattle Mariners will try to clinch the three-game series on Thursday afternoon when they visit the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards for a 1:05 p.m. ET start.
Seattle (67-54) jumped out to a 1-0 win on Tuesday, but Baltimore answered back with a 4-3 victory on Wednesday, leaving the series tied 1-1. The Mariners are 30-29 on the road this season, while the Orioles sit at 29-30 at home in 2025. The Orioles have won seven of the past nine meetings with Seattle.
Right-hander Logan Evans is expected to start for Seattle. He is 6-4 with a 4.36 ERA across 14 appearances this season, logging 74.1 innings with 77 hits, 36 earned runs, 26 walks and 57 strikeouts. Evans has won three of his last four decisions, including a 7-4 win over Tampa Bay last Saturday, when he went 5.1 innings and allowed three earned runs.
Seattle’s offense is led by center fielder Julio Rodríguez, who is batting .258 with 23 homers, 65 RBIs, 19 doubles and 23 stolen bases in 120 games. He contributed in the series opener with a 2-for-4 line that included a triple and a stolen base, and he followed with a multi-hit performance in the win over the Rays on Saturday.
Baltimore countering is right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a 9-5 record and a 4.24 ERA over 22 appearances (121 innings). Sugano most recently delivered seven strong innings in a 3-2 win over the Athletics, allowing five hits and one earned run while walking two and striking out four.
For Baltimore, shortstop Gunnar Henderson has provided the offense with six straight games of hits and owns a .284 average on the season with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 50 RBIs, 66 runs and 16 stolen bases. Henderson had a double in Wednesday’s win over Seattle and contributed a homer and three RBIs in a recent 11-3 loss to the Athletics.
Odds and projections
The Mariners are listed as a -131 favorite on the money line, with Baltimore at +109. The over-under is set at 10 runs, and Seattle carries a -1.5 run line at +120.
SportsLine’s projection model has simulated the game extensively and currently leans toward the Under, projecting about 9.5 total runs. The model has a strong track record this season on MLB money-line picks and has found value in several related prop and outcome bets. It also notes a favorable momentum tilt for Seattle in this matchup and emphasizes the potential for a pivotal series win on the road.
Why the Mariners can win
– Seattle’s pitching has shown resilience, with Evans delivering solid outings and the team looking to limit Baltimore’s run production.
– Rodríguez remains a key catalyst at the top of Seattle’s lineup, providing homer power and multi-hit games to spark scoring opportunities.
– The Mariners have had recent success on the road, improving their chances to steal the series on Thursday.
Why the Orioles can win
– Sugano’s emerging form has given Baltimore a reliable starting point, and he’s pitched deep into games with quality results.
– Henderson’s hot bat and table-setter ability help drive the Orioles’ offense, balancing the lineup with consistent run-producing hits.
– Baltimore’s home-field advantage at Camden Yards offers a favorable environment to edge past Seattle in a close series finale.
What to watch
– The matchup features two solid pitchers aiming to control the game early and keep the scoring low.
– The bullpen could be a deciding factor late, so managers may lean on their relievers sooner if the starter is stretched.
– Look for key moments from Rodríguez and Henderson to swing momentum in what should be a tightly contested tilt.
If you’re following the model’s picks, Thursday’s game will hinge on low-scoring innings and bullpen management, with the under and a value-side on the money line highlighted by the projection.
Outcome expectation
Expect a competitive, pitching-focused game with the potential for a late-inning swing. The team that executes in small-ball moments and limits costly miscues should have the edge in deciding the series.