Over the past weekend, the United States executed a significant military operation in Venezuela, resulting in the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro, which has sent startling ripples throughout Latin America. This escalatory move prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to escalate his rhetoric, as he threatened Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico with potential military action if they do not conform to U.S. expectations regarding drug trafficking and the protection of American interests in the region.
These threats evoke historical tensions related to U.S. interventionism in Latin America, as many nations are unwilling to accept external involvement. However, the military capabilities of these nations are considerably overshadowed by that of the United States, which operates the world’s most formidable military. In 2025, the U.S. military budget was estimated at $895 billion, vastly exceeding the combined expenditures of the next ten largest military budgets globally.
In terms of military strength across Latin America, Brazil holds the position of the most powerful force, ranking 11th globally, while Mexico is 32nd, Colombia at 46th, Venezuela at 50th, and Cuba at 67th, according to the 2025 Global Firepower rankings. All these nations fall short of U.S. military on numerous fronts, including active personnel, military hardware, and defense spending.
Despite their conventional military disadvantages, these countries do possess substantial paramilitary forces, which can employ asymmetrical warfare tactics that could complicate conventional military engagements. For example, Cuba boasts one of the world’s largest paramilitary forces with over 1.14 million members, including state-led militias and civilian defense forces. Meanwhile, pro-government civilian groups in Venezuela, known as “colectivos,” have been implicated in using intimidation tactics against dissenters, particularly under Maduro’s regime.
Colombia has seen the emergence of various right-wing paramilitary factions since the 1980s, originally formed to counter leftist insurgents. Many of these groups have since transformed into crime syndicates, continuing to wield significant influence in rural regions despite earlier disarmament efforts. In Mexico, drug cartels function similarly to paramilitaries, often equipped with military-grade weaponry that allows them to challenge state authority directly.
The history of U.S. intervention in Latin America stretches back over two centuries, marked by military engagements aimed at protecting American corporate interests and geopolitical standings. Historical events such as the late 19th-century Banana Wars and interventions during the Cold War, which included the financing of coups against elected governments, underscore the complex and often contentious relationship between the U.S. and its southern neighbors.
While tensions remain high, with various dynamics at play in the regional military landscape, the resilience and resourcefulness of Latin America’s armed groups may present unique challenges to U.S. military dominance in potential conflict scenarios. The situation is fluid, and the coming days will likely shed light on how these nations respond to U.S. pressures and threats.