Iowa State finds itself at a crucial juncture in the season with only four games remaining, currently projected as an 8-9 seed in the NCAA tournament. With the upcoming matchups classified as Q1 or Q2, the Cyclones face a volatile scenario, balancing potential outcomes that range from zero to four wins. According to current ESPN projections, the probabilities for their win total in the final stretch look as follows: 1% chance for no wins, 14% for one win, 42% for two wins, 36% for three wins, and 7% for a perfect four-win finish.
One significant contributing factor to Iowa State’s recent turnaround is the return of star forward Addy Brown. After missing 11 games due to injury, Brown has been actively involved again, spurring the Cyclones to six victories in their last seven games after a difficult start where they lost their first four without her. As the team regains its health and confidence, they eye the end of conference play as an opportunity to solidify their position and reestablish themselves among the top contenders.
Addy Brown’s impressive stats prior to her injury—averaging 13.1 points, 9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, along with six double-doubles—highlight her importance to Iowa State’s strategy. With a solid three-point shooting percentage of 42%, her presence enhances the team’s dynamic offensive approach, especially as she brings additional spacing to the high-low action method favored by the Cyclones.
Meanwhile, Arizona State is also in a precarious position in relation to tournament eligibility, currently ranked among the last four teams entering the NCAA tournament. To bolster their chances, the Sun Devils must secure a win either at Iowa State or Texas Tech. Despite their strong non-conference performance, including an undefeated record, they need significant victories to compete effectively for a tournament spot.
Arizona State’s offensive capabilities are largely driven by Gabby Elliot and McKinna Brackens, who average 17.3 and 15 points per game, respectively, while boasting an impressive defense ranked sixth in the conference. Under new head coach Molly Miller, who has transformed the program from a disappointing previous season, fans are optimistic about future improvements and increased engagement.
As both teams prepare for their showdown, the stakes are higher than anticipated. For Iowa State, lessons learned during Brown’s absence have proved valuable, leading to a more dynamic offense characterized by improved ball movement and strategy. The Cyclones must maintain control of the ball given Arizona State’s prowess in forcing turnovers, while also exploiting their size advantage in the paint.
The matchup promises high intensity and significant implications for postseason hopefuls. Iowa State enters the game with a compelling 86.4% chance of winning according to ESPN analytics, with a contest prediction favoring the Cyclones at 77-68 over Arizona State. As the season approaches its climax, fans and players alike look forward to witnessing how the final games unfold.