A number of NFL players saw their fantasy football ADPs swing noticeably between the eve of training camp and late August, with some rising on the strength of emerging roles or favorable team context, and others slipping as risk factors and uncertain situations surfaced. Here’s a breakdown of the key movers, based on overall ADP rankings in late August versus the start of camp.
Risers
– Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB: July ADP 99.7 → now 59.5. The rise is tied to injuries elsewhere in the receiving corps, including Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, though Godwin reportedly passed his physical and is on the active roster. Egbuka would still likely operate as a third option in a crowded passing game, which tempers the upside, but the early draft price moved significantly closer to the middle rounds.
– TreVeyon Henderson, RB, NE: 60.7 → 38.6. Henderson’s stock has in part benefited from preseason buzz, including a kickoff-return TD, and the Patriots’ early optimism. Caution remains about how the backfield is structured and how the workload will be distributed behind a more cautious plan for a young back.
– Chase Brown, RB, CIN: 24.8 → 17.4. Brown is viewed positively for workload potential, building on late-season usage. There is some concern about losing goal-line work, but the overall trend is a notable jump in draft position.
– Matthew Golden, WR, GB: 109.4 → 78.0. The Packers have high hopes for a receiver corps that has lacked a true 100-target guy since Davante Adams’ departure, but Golden’s college target share and the team’s overall pass volume raise questions. If he reaches around 100 targets, he could be a bargain in the late rounds; even with a more modest target projection (roughly 85-90), the price drop is meaningful.
– Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF: 11.2 → 8.0. The drop in ADP (meaning a move toward the top of drafts) is tied to the 49ers’ signing of Brian Robinson and broader workload management considerations. While health and age have been talking points, McCaffrey remains a highly valuable asset when healthy; the new ADP reflects a perception that the offense may manage his touches more strategically.
– Ricky Pearsall, WR, SF: 87.3 → 63.3. Pearsall has become more widely viewed as a potential starter, with expectations that he could become a significant contributor, especially if Aiyuk’s timeline remains uncertain after ACL surgery.
– Omarion Hampton, RB, LAC: 42.5 → 31.4. Hampton has moved into a clearer 1-2 backfield role behind the back that creates a compelling committee dynamic. The forecast is for shared carries rather than a clear bell cow.
– Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ: 168 → 125. Allen’s size and speed profile align with the Jets’ desired identity, and the team’s line play could support a strong goal-line and early-down role. If he cements more of a 1A/1B setup with room to grow, the move up in ADP reflects growing confidence.
Cruel summer (fallers)
– De’Von Achane, RB, MIA: 13.5 → 18.7. Achane’s ADP fell due to ongoing injury concerns and the Dolphins’ offseason medical news, including a calf issue that limited practice. While Week 1 participation is anticipated, the health risk has tempered enthusiasm and pushed his price back.
– Breece Hall, RB, NYJ: 33.0 → 45.0. Hall’s ascent has been cooled by the combination of a crowded Jets backfield and reports that Allen is taking on more third-down work. With the offense potentially leaning on multiple backs, Hall drops a tier in these ADPs.
– Puka Nacua, WR, LAR: 10.0 → 14.8. Moving from a top-10 range to closer to a mid-round pick reflects concerns about speed and red-zone targeting (notably his relative lack of red-zone targets in college) and the presence of other targets in Los Angeles. He remains a rookie with potential, but the price point adjusted downward.
What this means for drafts
– Rising players offer upside if their roles solidify, but many carry caveats (injury risk, team context, splits in backfields). Targeting these players requires weighing the potential for a larger role against the possibility of a plateaued workload.
– Fallers often reflect risk factors such as health questions, committee scenarios, or age/injury history. These players can still be productive, but their ADPs may require more deliberate consideration and risk tolerance.
– In all cases, it’s important to watch how camp and preseason developments affect depth charts and usage—and to adjust your draft strategy accordingly, especially in later rounds where upside picks hinge on role clarity.
Summary
ADP movements over the summer illustrate the tension between hype, injury news, and evolving team plans. Some players have gained momentum as clearer targets in their offenses, while others have drifted downward as risk factors accumulate. For fantasy managers, the key is to balance upside with risk, using late-round targets who could surprise if their roles materialize, while avoiding overreactions to early-season narratives.
Additional comments for value
– If you’re drafting soon, consider mapping out two tiers for each player: a best-case role (high upside) and a downside scenario (limited touches or share). This helps when you reach for risers with potential but no guaranteed workload.
– Pay attention to coaching changes and depth-chart shifts that could unlock players who may not have been on the radar mid-summer.
– Positive spin: even with uncertainty, some players at favorable prices could outperform their draft position if camp and preseason indicators translate into early-season volume.