The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter forecast for 2025-2026 on Thursday, outlining expected temperature and precipitation changes across the United States for the months of December, January, and February.
The forecast, developed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, anticipates that much of the contiguous U.S. will experience warmer-than-average temperatures. Southern states, in particular, are expected to have a drier and warmer winter compared to typical conditions. In contrast, northern states are likely to see cooler temperatures accompanied by increased precipitation.
This year’s weather patterns are aligned with the ongoing transition into La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which influences global weather patterns. NOAA officials confirmed earlier this month that the U.S. has shifted from the “neutral” phase of ENSO to La Niña as sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific fell below average.
La Niña, along with its counterpart El Niño, significantly affects weather conditions throughout North America. Its active phase generally leads to drought conditions in the southern U.S. while causing heavy rainfall in the Pacific Northwest and parts of Canada. During winter, La Niña is associated with a drier and warmer climate in the southern regions and cooler conditions with increased precipitation in the north.
Forecasters predict that La Niña will persist until February 2026 before returning to a neutral state with the arrival of spring. Although NOAA’s forecast does not detail snowfall predictions, it does indicate that there will be above-normal precipitation levels in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the northern Rockies, Great Plains, and western Great Lakes during the winter months.
Conversely, the southern half of the country is expected to experience drier conditions, particularly in the Southwest, southern Texas, and the Southeast.
The outlook also extends to Alaska, predicting warmer winters for northwestern regions, while the panhandle may experience cooler temperatures. Additionally, above-average precipitation is anticipated for western Alaska, whereas below-average precipitation is likely for the panhandle. Separate forecasts are provided specifically for the Hawaiian islands, though details have not been included in this report.
This comprehensive winter outlook indicates a significant impact of the La Niña phenomenon on weather patterns, providing critical information for residents and industries across the nation as they prepare for the upcoming season.