The Fiji Meteorological Service has confirmed that a La Niña event is currently in progress, with anticipation of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions in the upcoming months. In their latest Fiji Ocean Outlook, the agency raised alarms regarding predictions of rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) projected across Fiji waters from February to April 2026.
This warming trend poses an increased risk of marine heat stress and coral bleaching, particularly in shallow reef areas, threatening local marine ecosystems. The outlook indicates a southward shift in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from its usual spot, likely placing it within Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the same period. Such changes are expected to disrupt rainfall patterns and alter ocean conditions throughout the islands.
Currently, the forecast for coral bleaching is classified at Alert Level 1 for waters along the Coral Coast and in the Northern, Central, and Eastern Divisions of Fiji. Several other areas in Fiji’s waters are marked with a heightened ‘Warning’ status due to significant thermal stress on coral reefs if elevated sea temperatures persist.
Moreover, the Fiji Meteorological Service has noted alterations in sea level patterns. From February to April 2026, a trend of below-normal sea levels is expected across most of the Fiji Group, while the island of Rotuma is predicted to see above-normal sea levels.
Meteorologists underline the importance of ongoing monitoring for the benefit of coastal communities, marine biology, and fisheries. The combination of La Niña, increasing sea temperatures, and shifting ocean-atmosphere dynamics emphasizes the pressing need for vigilance in protecting Fiji’s marine environment and its natural resources, critical for the livelihoods of many residents. By maintaining close observation of these conditions, there is optimism that effective strategies can be implemented to preserve the delicate balance of Fiji’s marine ecosystems.