Meteorologists expect the upcoming cyclone season for the southwest Pacific to bring between five to nine cyclones, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand. This official season, spanning from November to April, is predicted to have an elevated risk of storms affecting regions westward, particularly close to the Coral Sea, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu.
Principal scientist Chris Brandolino has suggested that the season may witness two to four severe tropical cyclones. He stressed the importance of understanding the cyclone intensity categories, which range from one to five, but warned against focusing solely on these numbers. Cyclones can have widespread effects, and significant impacts can extend far beyond the storm’s center. For example, even less intense storms can result in heavy rainfall and flooding if they stall.
Brandolino explained that tropical cyclones thrive in warmer ocean conditions commonly associated with La Niña periods, which foster suitable environments for cyclone development. During these periods, warmer-than-average sea temperatures typically accumulate in the western Pacific, impacting areas like Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.
Reflecting on recent weather events, Vanuatu experienced three tropical cyclones within a span of three months in 2023, including category four cyclones Kevin and Judy in March, followed by category five Cyclone Lola in October. Brandolino noted that while cyclones usually peak during the warmer months of February and March, they can occasionally form outside of the traditional cyclone season.
In light of Cyclone Lola’s aftermath, which sadly resulted in four fatalities and considerable destruction, communities in Vanuatu are prioritizing resilience-building measures. They are actively developing strategies meant to mitigate the effects of future cyclones. Brandolino emphasized the importance of staying updated with reliable meteorological information, encouraging individuals across the Pacific to be vigilant as the cyclone season draws nearer.
The proactive measures and determination demonstrated by these communities offer a hopeful outlook for facing the upcoming cyclone season. With increased awareness and careful planning, individuals can significantly bolster their safety and preparedness, ultimately leading to greater resilience in the face of natural disasters.