Fall forecast signals a warmer start with near-normal rainfall as ENSO shifts toward La Niña
As August draws to a close and meteorological fall begins, forecasters expect slightly above-average temperatures with rainfall near the seasonal average.
The outlook rests on evolving ENSO conditions. The region is currently in a neutral phase, with ocean waters off the coast of South America near normal. Climate predictions indicate these waters will cool over the next month or two, nudging us into a La Niña phase for a few months before returning to neutral by winter.
If La Niña materializes, it would push the jet stream farther north, contributing to warmer conditions across the Midwest. In terms of rainfall, La Niña typically brings drier conditions, but because forecasters anticipate a weak and short-lived La Niña, near-normal precipitation is still expected.
The shift to La Niña could influence the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics, which can allow some storms to intensify. Officials caution that this means the season could see a few stronger hurricanes, particularly in the southeastern United States.
What this means for you: plan for a mild fall with plenty of outdoor opportunities and temperatures that may rise above average at times, alongside generally near-average rainfall. Utilities, farmers, and event planners may find it helpful to monitor updates as ENSO conditions evolve. While the overall pattern offers optimism for comfortable days, there is still potential for storm activity if La Niña develops.
Overall, forecasters emphasize that these are long-range trends with some uncertainty. Keeping an eye on the latest CPC updates will help communities stay prepared and make the most of the season ahead. A hopeful note: longer stretches of dry, warm days could favor outdoor activities and harvest planning, even as residents stay vigilant for any late-season storm development.