Tennessee is now in the midst of its second severe weather season, which typically reaches its peak in November according to the National Weather Service. This period lasts until December, though the risk of severe weather can extend into January and February.
Nashville and the surrounding areas are bracing for potentially severe weather as a cold front approaches. The National Weather Service reports that this front could bring strong thunderstorms, particularly during late Friday afternoon and early evening. As highlighted in forecasts, November is recognized as a critical time for severe storms, making it vital for residents to stay alert.
Meteorologist Ryan Husted noted that the ongoing La Niña climate pattern, marked by cooler ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is contributing to a more active weather pattern this season. “In this ‘second season’ for severe weather, we typically see at least one significant event each year, although the frequency can vary depending on the atmospheric conditions,” he explained.
The second severe weather season in Tennessee officially peaks in November but often stretches into December, with expectations of continuing storm activity through the winter months. Husted indicated that the weak La Niña pattern may enhance the potential for severe weather during the cool months, while possibly signaling an early start to the standard spring severe weather season.
Despite cooler conditions recently, forecasts suggest a 33-40% chance of above-normal temperatures for Tennessee from November through January. Husted cautioned that recent weather patterns should not serve as indicators for the winter and spring forecasts, as they can quickly shift.
When it comes to tornado activity, Tennessee typically sees most tornadoes during the spring, but some fall occurrences do take place, albeit usually of lower intensity. On average, about 30 tornadoes are reported each year in Tennessee, with around three typically occurring during this secondary season. The shift in the polar jet stream plays a significant role, bringing stronger storm systems and more volatile weather during this transition period.
Historically, Tennessee has experienced severe tornado events during its secondary season. Past occurrences have included the deadly tornadoes on December 9, 2023, which tragically killed six people in Clarksville and Madison, among other incidents. Residents are urged to remain vigilant during this time. Husted emphasized the importance of preparedness, including having emergency kits and established communication plans.
Despite the potential for severe weather, there is hope that Tennesseans will stay safe and be proactive in their preparations. By staying informed and ready, communities can work together to mitigate the impact of severe weather throughout the season.