The Climate Prediction Center has issued its latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, revealing that while La Niña is still present, it is anticipated to weaken over the next few months. The forecast indicates a 75% likelihood that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March 2026, with neutral conditions expected to last through at least late spring. This shift follows a period where sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have remained below average; however, subsurface warming suggests that the La Niña influence is beginning to dissipate. Even once neutral conditions establish, some effects of La Niña may linger into early spring.
In the wake of this announcement, a Weather Warn Day has been issued due to heavy rainfall expected this weekend, which could help alleviate temporary drought conditions in Western North Carolina and Upstate regions. Despite the warm start to January across several parts of the United States, the prevailing weather pattern remains consistent with La Niña dynamics. As January progresses, colder air is predicted to return more frequently to the eastern U.S., impacting the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Typically, the La Niña pattern means that the eastern half of the nation experiences colder temperatures and a higher probability of winter precipitation, while the western U.S. tends to be warmer and drier, driven by strong high-pressure systems. This ongoing weather pattern may not only bring colder weather to parts of the country but also presents the opportunity for beneficial precipitation in drought-affected areas.