The NBA’s quiet summer is giving way to a few lingering storylines that could shape the edge-of-season narrative: Jonathan Kuminga’s ongoing restricted free-agency drama, a handful of other RFAs still waiting for their big moment, and the questions teams face as training camps approach. Here’s a compiled take from conversations among seasoned NBA observers, blending the key facts with how the summer’s moves could play out in 2025-26.
Kuminga’s stalled path and the broader restricted free-agent landscape
Kuminga remains unsigned two months into free agency, a situation that mirrors the stasis around several other notable restricted free agents. His decision isn’t just about a dollar figure; it’s about how the path to unrestricted free agency could unfold. His current offer on the table is a two-year, $45 million contract, with a $21.75 million first year, but he’s reportedly contemplated taking the $7.9 million qualifying offer to reset his market next summer. The qualifying offer deadline is October 1, with training camps starting shortly before that, a window that could see pressure ramp up as teams finalize their rosters and salary slots.
For Kuminga, the Warriors are hoping to keep him in a way that preserves leverage for future trades or extensions. For other RFAs, the gap between their qualifying offers and what they believe they’re worth on the open market is even larger, driven in part by a rapidly rising cap that hasn’t translated into universal spending space, given the league’s luxury-tax framework and the second apron rules. The quartet at the center of this discussion—Kuminga (Warriors), Cam Thomas (Nets), Quentin Grimes (Sixers), and Josh Giddey (Bulls)—all sit in that tricky middle ground where teams would prefer not to lose them for nothing, but individual players still eye the biggest possible payday.
Of the four, Giddey might have the clearest near-term path to a deal, given his guaranteed money on the table, but even he faces a tough calculation if the market moves against the offer sheet. Kuminga’s situation, in particular, is tied to the Warriors’ readiness to balance his development with immediate roster needs and salary commitments for other pending free-agent decisions. The longer this plays out, the more both sides will need to decide how aggressive they want to be — and when.
Season previews and teams to watch
Looking beyond the Kuminga dynamic, several teams are positioned to be compelling storylines in 2025-26:
– The Houston Rockets could emerge as the team to watch, not because they’ll necessarily be title favorites, but because their combination of a seasoned star in Kevin Durant and a core built around Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson creates a dynamic mix. Durant’s arrival injects elite scoring and experience, while the Rockets’ depth and defense could make them a serious challenger to Oklahoma City in the West, provided chemistry is managed well by coach Ime Udoka. Durant’s presence will test the balance between leveraging his playmaking and allowing younger players to grow, a challenge that could define Houston’s ceiling this season.
– The Denver Nuggets are adding depth without sacrificing the core that carried them to the top of the West. Replacing Michael Porter Jr. with Cam Johnson strengthens perimeter defense and shooting, while Jonas Valančiūnas provides reliable depth at the five. Bruce Brown’s re-signing adds backcourt versatility, and the roster is rounded with young players like Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, and Peyton Watson. If Nikola Jokić continues to elevate the team and the group remains cohesive, Denver should again be a serious threat in a loaded conference.
– The Orlando Magic offer a different kind of optimism. The addition of Desmond Bane injects shooting and spacing around a core that already includes Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, and Franz Wagner. If the shooting improves across the board and the defense remains physical, Orlando could push for a top-three finish in the East. The path to 45, 50, or even 55 wins would hinge on staying healthy and maximizing continuity, while navigating how the offense evolves with Bane initiating more of the attack.
Which teams spark the most intrigue right now?
– The Atlanta Magic and their potential rise in the East are a frequent talking point, with Orlando’s physical, defensive style and shooting improvements offering a potential path to sustained success.
– The Philadelphia 76ers carry a different kind of risk: a wide range of possible outcomes depending on Embiid’s health, the development of Tyrese Maxey and the other young guards, and how Grimes fits back into the rotation if he returns. The Sixers’ season could swing dramatically in either direction.
– The Sacramento Kings, meanwhile, remain an enigma in a roster that looks to balance youth with experience, with questions about how the backcourt mix will gel around De’Aaron Fox and DeRozan’s presence on the roster underscoring a broader strategic crossroads for a team trying to convert potential into sustained contention.
What to watch as training camps approach
– How Kuminga’s standoff unfolds: Will one side blink first, or will a compromise emerge that unlocks more meaningful roster moves for the Warriors ahead of the season?
– RFAs’ options and cap consequences: With cap space and luxury-tax considerations at the center, teams may choose shorter-term, smaller-guarantee paths or hold tight to preserve flexibility for future moves.
– Chemistry and fit on newly constructed teams: Durant’s fit with the Rockets, Johnson’s pace with Denver, and Bane’s offensive ramp around Orlando’s core will shape how quickly these teams can translate offseason changes into results.
A hopeful lens for the season
Despite the long, unsettled silences of summer, there is reason for optimism. The cap reality has not stifled bold moves; it has nudged teams toward smarter, more complementary acquisitions and deeper rotations. The result could be more competitive balance and more meaningful in-season decisions, with teams navigating cap constraints in smarter, more collaborative ways. For fans, the upcoming training camps promise a clearer sense of how these agreements, signings, and strategic pivots will translate into exciting, high-stakes basketball.
Summary of takeaways
– Kuminga and several RFAs remain in limbo, highlighting a broader strategic tension between player value and team cost under a high-cap environment with luxury-tax constraints.
– Teams like Houston, Denver, and Orlando are positioned for intriguing seasons due to major roster changes, strong coaching, and a mix of veteran stability and youth.
– The season’s trajectory will depend heavily on health, chemistry, and how teams balance long-term aspirations with immediate competitive needs.
Additional notes and commentary
– The ongoing restricted free-agent conversations may shape trade leverage and potential sign-and-trade dynamics throughout the fall. Teams will be weighing not just this season, but how a contract decision today could influence next summer’s market.
– Fans should watch for how new/older core pieces integrate with rising stars, particularly around shooting and spacing, as teams look to maximize the potential of high-usage players without overcommitting long-term money.
If you’d like, I can tailor this rewrite further for a specific audience (e.g., general readers, basketball enthusiasts, or readers focused on contract dynamics) or convert it into a version with pull quotes and quick takeaways for a WP post. I can also add a short, reader-friendly glossary explaining terms like qualifying offers, restricted free agency, and the second apron to help newer fans follow the discussion.