KBS, MBC, and SBS are partnering with the Korean Broadcasting Association to conduct exit polls for the upcoming presidential election. Known for their past accuracy, these networks aim to predict the winner of the 21st presidential election through extensive polling, with a budget exceeding 1.6 billion won.
The Korea Election Pool (KEP) will carry out their exit polls from 6 AM to 8 PM, surveying approximately 100,000 voters across more than 325 polling stations nationwide. Additionally, they will conduct a phone survey with 11,500 individuals who participated in early voting to refine their predictions. The results of the exit polls will be revealed immediately after voting concludes at 8 PM, while other media outlets will be able to reference these results starting at 8:10 PM.
The KEP gained attention for its precise forecasts during the 2022 election, where it accurately predicted the close results between former President Yoon Suk-yeol and Democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung, coming within one decimal point of the final vote tally. Previously, JTBC had its own exit polling but mispredicted the outcomes, leading it to refrain from conducting its own polls this time.
A significant factor for the accuracy of this round’s predictions is the record high participation in early voting, which stood at 34.74%. This participation rate could impact the election outcomes, as seen in previous elections where high early voting participation led to discrepancies between exit poll predictions and actual results. In the recent 2024 National Assembly election, for instance, while KEP predicted a major victory for the opposition, the actual results were somewhat different, with 192 seats secured instead of the anticipated 200.
The anticipation surrounding the accuracy of these exit polls adds an element of excitement to the upcoming election, as stakeholders from various backgrounds closely watch the output of this survey methodology. The commitment of these broadcasters to invest substantial resources into this process indicates the importance of accurate voter sentiment and predictive forecasting in parliamentary politics.