Hurricane Kiko strengthens in the Pacific as a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific eyes a boost to tropical-storm strength this week
Hurricane Kiko has formed in the central Pacific and is tracking westward well away from land. The latest advisory places Kiko about 1,840 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph and higher gusts. The storm is moving slowly west at around 7 mph, and forecasters expect it to gradually intensify over the next couple of days. There are no coastal hazards anticipated from Kiko at this time.
In the same basin, a separate system is evolving toward tropical storm status. Tropical Depression Twelve-E is located roughly 190 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. Forecasts indicate it should strengthen and is likely to become a tropical storm on Tuesday, Sept. 2. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California should monitor the situation, as a tropical storm watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur later on Sept. 2 or Sept. 3.
Heavy rainfall is expected to accompany the depression as it strengthens. Areas well east and northeast of the system are likely to see soaking rains across northwestern Mexico, from Colima to Sinaloa on Sept. 2, with isolated flash flooding a concern in mountainous terrain. The meteorological center notes that bands of heavy rainfall could begin affecting Baja California Sur by Wednesday, with total rainfall in some areas potentially reaching 4 to 8 inches.
Forecast models and outlooks
Forecasters emphasize that forecast models, often referred to as “spaghetti models,” are used to gauge the most probable track of tropical systems. The National Hurricane Center highlights that only a subset of the best-performing models is used to guide the official forecast, and uncertainty remains a normal part of tropical cyclone prediction.
Atlantic activity to watch
Beyond the Pacific, the National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic, south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and appears conducive to gradual development over the next several days. The system has about a 70% chance of formation over the next seven days and is expected to move west at roughly 15 mph across the eastern and central Atlantic, with a potential tropical depression forming later this week or over the weekend.
How hurricanes form and why preparedness matters
Hurricanes form over warm tropical waters when clusters of thunderstorms organize and intensify. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm at sustained winds of 39 mph, and it becomes a hurricane at 74 mph or higher. Staying informed and prepared is crucial, as conditions can change quickly.
Practical steps to prepare
– Build a disaster supply kit and ensure you have enough essentials for several days.
– Review and update evacuation plans, including routes and designated meeting points.
– Increase home resilience: trim trees, secure loose objects, and consider storm shutters or impact-resistant windows.
– Check flood insurance needs, as standard homeowners or renters policies typically don’t cover flooding; flood insurance often requires a 30-day waiting period.
– Create a family communication plan with out-of-town contacts and important contact information.
Outlook and takeaway
Forecasts indicate Kiko will continue its gradual strengthening while posing no current threat to land. The most immediate concerns lie with Tropical Depression Twelve-E and its potential progression toward tropical storm status, along with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of northwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. The Atlantic wave near Cabo Verde also bears close watching for possible development in the days ahead. Stay with local meteorological agencies for the latest advisories and updates as forecasts evolve. Even as systems shift, proactive preparation remains the best safeguard for communities in the path of tropical weather.