As Thursday Night Football approaches, excitement is building around the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Chargers. Ahead of the game, analysts are honing in on key player performances, particularly focusing on Vikings safety Josh Metellus as a player to watch in the prop market.
For Thursday, October 23 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, Metellus is predicted to have an impactful game against the Chargers. A recommended prop bet is to take Josh Metellus for over 6.5 tackles and assists, listed at (-110). This prediction is based on Metellus’s recent performance patterns and changes in his on-field role.
Metellus has only surpassed the 6.5 mark in two of his first six games this season. However, with star safety Harrison Smith returning to a full-time role, we’ve already seen a shift in Metellus’s deployment. He has been positioned in the more productive areas of the field, such as the box and slot, 37% more frequently than earlier this season. This adjustment is expected to increase his tackle opportunities significantly.
Facing a Chargers offense that tends to generate a high volume of passing completions, projections suggest the Vikings’ defense could see around five and a half more completed passes than their normal average. This scenario could further elevate Metellus’s chances to make tackles, despite the anticipated drop in rushing attempts directed at the Vikings defense.
Moreover, Metellus has encountered a challenging schedule, and analysts believe that had he faced an average set of opponents, his tackle numbers would be considerably higher. The Chargers, with their offensive style, present an ideal matchup for Metellus, offering around an 8% increase in tackle opportunities for players in his hybrid role.
One consideration remains; the Chargers’ scorekeeping is known to be stringent regarding assists. But Metellus tends to secure a favorable quantity of solo tackles, making the over 6.5 tackles and assists bet a compelling choice. An alternative bet for those looking for a safe option could be to back his tackles-only prop at over 4.5, which would eliminate the uncertainty surrounding assist counts.
Overall, analysts project Metellus to make around 7.3 tackles and assists in this matchup, giving him a robust chance—approximately 60%—to exceed the 6.5 mark given his return to form and strategic role placement. This adds an additional layer of excitement for fans and bettors alike as they gear up for what promises to be an engaging Thursday night showdown.