Jones Knows, the football betting expert and top tipster, has four Premier League fixtures worth watching this weekend, offering a mix of cautious price-driven plays and sharper takes on teams’ form and potential in new setups.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Palace’s key data point this season revolves around Eberechi Eze’s impact. Since the start of 23/24, he hasn’t started 21 league games, and Palace’ win rate drops from 40% to 19% in that period, with points per game slipping from 1.5 to 1.0. Jones notes the challenge for Oliver Glasner to keep confidence high after losing a popular attacker, and he highlights Forest as a sturdy, well-organised opponent with strong defensive duo Milenkovic and Murillo.
Prediction and bet: An away win for Forest is favored here, with a 21/10 price on Forest to win at Crystal Palace appealing in Sky Bet’s market.
Score forecast: 0-1
Everton vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The narrative around Everton moving into their new stadium has included concerns about atmosphere and nerves, but Jones counters with recent evidence from teams that have moved stadiums: in the first five games of the following seasons after moving, the new homes have not been a hindrance, with 16 wins from 25 games and only four losses in that sample.
Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium is designed to stay hostile and the home advantage is expected to matter. Jones views Brighton as a team believed to be overvalued by markets, and he puts Everton at 19/10 to win the match at home, a price he considers solid.
Prediction and bet: Everton to win
Score forecast: 1-0
Fulham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United’s recent display against Arsenal has kept the market’s eye on their central midfield and wing-back output, with questions about how they’ll function in a 3-5-2 shape without consistent ball pressure and attacking width.
Jones often backs Fulham when they’re overlooked: Marco Silva’s side were strong against top-half teams last season, collecting 30 of 54 points in those fixtures, a stat that supported profitable betting when prices aligned. He sees 6/4 with Sky Bet on Fulham in the draw-no-bet market as appealing, since stakes get refunded if the game ends level.
Prediction and bet: Fulham to win (draw-no-bet)
Score forecast: 2-1
Newcastle United vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Eddie Howe has been praised for how he’s handled the Isak situation, rallying the squad and leaning into the club’s home-ground intensity, especially with the St James’ Park crowd. Newcastle are set up to counter-attack effectively, and Liverpool have shown vulnerability on the break this season.
Jones points out that Newcastle look a strong choice, especially in the double-chance market at 4/5. He also shares his best bet for the day: a 1pt treble consisting of Micky van de Ven 1+ shots, Habib Diarra 2+ shots, and Newcastle double chance, priced at 9/1 with Sky Bet.
Jones Knows’ Best Bet:
– 1pt treble: Micky van de Ven 1+ shots, Habib Diarra 2+ shots, Newcastle double chance (9/1 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle/Dortmund-style note: Newcastle’s setup relies on quick transitions and exploiting space when Liverpool commit men forward. The home advantage and the way Howe utilises the Isak situation can be crucial in a high-tempo Monday night clash.
Overall takeaway and value notes
– The week’s angles lean into teams dealing with absences or adapting to new environments, with Forest and Everton offered as upside plays against perceived market biases.
– Fulham’s market gap against a big six opponent and their track record against stronger teams provide a compelling draw-no-bet option at favorable odds.
– Newcastle’s home-ground energy and counter-attacking potential against a front-foot Liverpool shape the best-value double-chance play, complemented by a multi-leg treble featuring shots-based props.
Summary
Jones Knows’ selections target markets where perceived advantages in setup and opposition weakness align with favorable odds. The weekend’s actionable bets span away wins influenced by form and personnel changes, to a draw-no-bet angle for Fulham and a high-reward, multi-part treble anchored by Newcastle’s likely pressure at home.
Additional commentary
– As with all betting content, outcomes are uncertain and markets can shift. Readers should consider their own risk tolerance and bet sizes, and view these picks as entertaining analysis rather than guaranteed results.
– If you’re new to draw-no-bet markets, remember they refund stakes on level draws, which can reduce risk for value bets when a favored team is slightly under pressure but still likely to win.
If you’d like, I can add a short glossary of the key betting terms used (draw-no-bet, double chance, 1+ shots, etc.) or tailor a version with only the core picks for quick-reading on a homepage.