In the wake of a devastating suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad that claimed the lives of over 30 individuals, analysts have expressed concerns that this tragic incident may exacerbate sectarian tensions within an already fragile security scenario in Pakistan. The attack occurred at the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque, a Shia place of worship, during Friday prayers, leading to the hospitalization of 169 others as rescue teams responded to the chaos.
Responsibility for the bombing was claimed by a splinter faction of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known as ISPP, through a post on Telegram. Reports indicate that the attacker had engaged mosque security before detonating explosives among worshippers, with Defence Minister Khawaja Asif suggesting that the assailant had connections to Afghanistan.
As the investigation unfolds, security officials have made significant arrests, targeting family members of the bomber in locations such as Peshawar and Karachi. This attack marks a concerning shift in Islamabad’s recent security landscape, which had been relatively stable compared to prior years, and represents a notable escalation in violence, being the second major incident in the capital since last year.
Conflict analyst Abdul Sayed noted this bombing represents ISPP’s most lethal attack in Pakistan since its inception in 2019. He pointed out that since its formation, ISPP has conducted approximately 100 attacks, predominantly in the Balochistan region, where sectarian violence has also claimed numerous lives.
Data from the Pak Institute of Peace Studies indicates a troubling trend; attacks across Pakistan have risen significantly, with 699 recorded incidents in 2022, marking a 34 percent increase compared to the year prior. Islamabad has accused the Afghan Taliban, who took power in 2021, of harboring armed groups that perpetrate violence within Pakistan, a claim the Taliban has denied.
Recent geopolitical tensions have further complicated matters. While the Afghan Taliban condemned the mosque bombing, relations with Pakistan remain strained, exemplified by violent border clashes earlier this month. The convergence of sectarian and regional influences raises alarms about the potential for increasing violence, particularly in Kurram, a district with a mixed Sunni and Shia population known for its sectarian strife.
Security experts warn that low-intensity sectarian violence could occur if the investigation doesn’t swiftly conclude, urging for caution to prevent this incident from fueling further unrest. The interplay between regional and domestic dynamics, compounded by the involvement of anti-Shia elements within militant networks, suggests that the security landscape in Pakistan may face ongoing volatility.
Despite these challenges, there is hope that a robust response and proactive measures could prevent wider sectarian conflict, emphasizing the importance of thorough investigations and cooperation among security forces to dismantle networks facilitating such acts of violence.