Regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s Wimbledon final, Novak Djokovic will leave with a lead in the all-time Grand Slam race that appears permanently secure.
Djokovic is likely to retire with an edge over Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, with no one else posing a significant threat. Whether Djokovic finishes with 24 or 25 majors as he gradually winds down his career at age 37 might seem insignificant.
However, it could be crucial, given who will be facing Djokovic across the net on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz heads into the Wimbledon final with the chance to make history. He could become the ninth man in the Open era to achieve back-to-back victories at the All-England Club and just the sixth to accomplish the French Open-Wimbledon double.
If Alcaraz wins his fourth Grand Slam title on Sunday, Djokovic may find himself worrying about the potential for Alcaraz to close the gap.
It may sound absurd, as four titles are far from 24. Numerous factors can affect a tennis career, such as injury, lack of motivation, or the emergence of another strong rival. The odds of anyone catching Djokovic seem long.
Yet, based on Alcaraz’s current accomplishments and expected development, it’s not unreasonable to think he has a genuine shot at reaching the 20s in Grand Slam titles. Looking a decade and a half into the future, when Alcaraz is Djokovic’s current age, we might remember this Wimbledon final as a pivotal moment in their Grand Slam rivalry.
Here’s why Djokovic should feel at least a bit threatened by Alcaraz’s potential to break his record.
Alcaraz has already claimed three Grand Slam titles by age 21 on three different surfaces. Unlike Pete Sampras, who struggled on clay, or Ivan Lendl, who couldn’t conquer grass, Alcaraz is expected to contend at every Grand Slam. His relatively poor performance at the Australian Open thus far is likely just a result of bad timing, and there’s little doubt he will eventually win there to complete the career Slam.
Among the younger players, none are in Alcaraz’s league. His rivalry with 22-year-old Jannik Sinner has produced some great matches, with Alcaraz leading their head-to-head 5-4. However, Sinner, who won the Australian Open this year, has not been as consistently strong in physically enduring tough five-set matches. Alcaraz has already surpassed players like Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. While they can defeat Alcaraz on a good day, they are not consistent threats. Only Djokovic and Sinner are, and Djokovic won’t be around much longer.
Alcaraz has reached the stage where he can win Grand Slams without playing his best tennis. For others, everything needs to align perfectly to win one. Alcaraz entered this year’s French Open with questions about a forearm injury and managed to win despite playing at 80% of his capacity with several bad spells.
If Alcaraz averages 1.5 Grand Slam titles a year over the next decade, he could have 18 by age 31, which seems attainable and possibly a conservative estimate.
Perhaps the biggest factor is that Alcaraz still has room to improve. His serve and shot selection should get better with experience, and his tendency to go for flashy plays rather than solid shots should mellow over time. He will learn to fight off dips in focus. As good as he is now, Alcaraz is not yet in his prime.
Though Alcaraz was seen as a generational talent when he made his first Wimbledon final last year, putting him in the Grand Slam record conversation would have been premature. He had only one US Open title and was an underdog to Djokovic, who has seven Wimbledon titles.
Alcaraz’s victory in last year’s match signaled a tectonic shift in tennis’ power structure. Though Djokovic had an incredible fall, including winning the US Open, the younger generation has taken control of the sport in the first half of 2024, while Djokovic’s health and motivation have come into question.
A few weeks ago, Djokovic’s chance to add a 25th major this summer seemed unlikely, especially after he withdrew from the French Open quarterfinals due to a knee injury.
Djokovic opted for surgery, intending to recover for the Olympics. Instead, he felt well enough to enter Wimbledon, benefited from a favorable draw, and used his experience on grass to reach the final without pushing himself too hard.
This might be the formula Djokovic needs to win more Slams at this stage. Things aligned well for him this time, and the final against Alcaraz is a match he can win.
However, unlike last year, Alcaraz is the favorite this time. He knows how to handle Grand Slam finals mentally and physically, and his top level may be equal to or better than Djokovic’s in 2024.
Djokovic may have enough left to win a few more Grand Slams, but Wimbledon, where his physical decline is less pronounced, might be his best chance.
It’s an opportunity to widen the gap between himself and Alcaraz in the history books. Given current trends, Djokovic may need that distance in the future.