Markets in Iran have entered a new phase of volatility in the second week of Shahrivar, with moves driven more by political tensions and trader psychology than by underlying economic indicators. On Sunday, the dollar extended its rally, a move that immediately fed through to gold and coins, producing multi‑million rial gains in those markets. The central bank governor said a substantial portion of this activity stems from fear and nerves rather than real shortages, noting that the country’s foreign exchange and gold reserves remain high. Still, experience shows that trader confidence and expectations can tilt markets more than official data.
Dollar reaching a critical threshold
Looking at the first two trading days of the week, the market seems to be testing new boundaries. After crossing the historic 100,000 rial level last week, the dollar closed on Sunday at 104,900 rials. The overnight or “back‑channel” market pushed higher, signaling that traders are still betting on a continued rally. By Tuesday, the official market had caught up to the sentiment, with the dollar moving into the 106,100‑rial area in the back market.
Analysts suggest that if political tensions and questions around the triggering of restrictive measures persist, the dollar could push beyond current levels. Some view the latest rise as a preemptive move by market participants, pricing in potential policy shifts or external support. If the central bank steps in or messages of support come from allies, a stabilization in the 104–105 thousand rial range is possible; otherwise, a test of higher ceilings remains likely.
Gold, coins and the dollar’s shadow
In a backdrop where the dollar leads, the gold market largely tracks the currency’s moves. The price of 18‑carat gold rose to around 8.945 million rials at intraday highs and settled near 8.924 million at the close. By the time of writing, the 18‑carat price was around 8.968 million. The spike in gold prices came despite no major changes in global gold prices or oil markets at the same moment, underscoring the domestic market’s sensitivity to political developments and dollar strength. The one‑day rise sent the Emami (sakki) gold coin to about 97.2 million rials, with the surrounding coins posting multi‑channel gains.
Global gold and its domestic echo
Typically, movements in international gold prices—often driven by changes in the dollar and geopolitical risk—are a key driver for domestic gold and coin prices. This time, however, the domestic dollar rally appears to be the primary driver, with the ounce price remaining a secondary influence. The global price of gold traded around $3,470–$3,508 per ounce in recent sessions; the market’s outlook suggests that if the dollar can hold above the 105,000 rial mark while the ounce price holds above certain levels, domestic prices could push toward new highs.
Gold bars and the price of the precious metal abroad
The price of gold bars rose in line with the broader rally. Opened around 37.64 million rials, they climbed into the 38 million rial zone, finishing near 38.66 million. At the time of writing, the price of a bar was around 38.85 million. Technical levels point to 38 million as a short‑term support zone, with resistance near 39 million and a potential move toward 39.5 million and even 40 million if momentum persists. As with other gold instruments, the domestic trend will continue to hinge on the dollar’s trajectory and the global price of the metal.
The 18‑carat gold coin and the coin market
The appeal of the additional‑assay coin complex continues to be tied to dollar strength and the global price backdrop. The 18‑carat gold coin rose toward a fresh high, reflecting the broader price environment for safe‑haven assets in a period of political uncertainty. If the dollar remains firm above 105,000 rials and global gold moves higher, these coins could push toward new peak levels.
Sovereign coins and smaller denominations
In parallel, the price of the half‑coin rose from the lower end of the 51‑million rial range to the 52‑million area, with the latest quotes around 52.4 million rials. The move underscores the broader trend of a rising price environment across the entire coin spectrum, driven by the stronger dollar and local demand expectations.
Outlook and what to watch
Looking ahead, analysts emphasize that the market remains highly sensitive to political developments, particularly around potential triggering of global financial measures and any messaging from the central bank or allied countries. If policy signals are supportive, the dollar could stabilize in the 104–105 thousand rial zone, easing pressure on gold and coins. If uncertainty persists, a further push toward higher levels remains a possibility, with the next milestones in the 106–107 thousand range and potential tests of the 98–100 million rial territory for the Emami coin.
On the global side, a continued move higher in the ounce price and any weakness in the dollar could lift domestic gold markets and cause a short‑term pullback in the rate of the dollar, offering a window for some stabilization.
Practical insights for readers
– The current spike in Iranian assets is closely tied to political risk and market sentiment rather than pure macro fundamentals.
– A decisive policy signal from the central bank or credible external support could anchor the dollar and reduce volatility.
– Traders should monitor the 103,000–104,000 rial range as a potential near‑term supportive zone, with resistance around 106,500 rials.
– Gold and coin markets remain prone to outsized moves as long as dollar strength and political headlines drive expectations.
Hopeful angle
Despite the volatility, the persistence of high reserves provides a cushion that supports market stability in the medium term, with policymakers potentially guiding sentiment through clear communications and measured interventions. If policy signals align with market expectations, there is room for a more balanced trajectory, helping price levels stabilize while the economy absorbs the current political climate.
Summary notes
– The second week of Shahrivar brought heightened volatility in Iran’s currency, gold, and coin markets, driven largely by political risk and market psychology.
– The dollar crossed key thresholds, with back‑market activity suggesting continued bullish sentiment unless policy signals restrain the move.
– Gold, both in 18‑carat bars and coins, climbed in tandem with the dollar, while global gold prices provided a reinforcing backdrop.
– Technical levels point to a critical short‑term dynamic: support around 103–104k for the dollar, resistance near 106.5k, and a vigil around 98–100 million for coin prices.
– The near term hinges on political developments and policy signals, with a more stable outcome possible if clarity and coordination emerge from domestic and allied actors.