The recent missile strikes by Iran on Gulf cities have plunged the region into a precarious situation, forcing Gulf states into a challenging dilemma. Over the weekend, Iranian missiles hit various locations, including Doha, Dubai, and Manama, marking a significant departure from the Gulf’s long-held image of stability and safety amid the turmoil of the Middle East.
In response to these attacks, which followed Iran’s retaliation against a joint US-Israeli air campaign that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous military personnel, the Gulf states now find themselves balancing between two stark choices: retaliate and risk being perceived as allies to Israel or maintain a passive stance while their cities suffer attacks.
Monica Marks, a professor of Middle East politics at New York University Abu Dhabi, highlighted the surreal nature of these events for Gulf residents and leaders, likening the shock of these attacks to what Americans would feel if cities like Charlotte or Seattle were bombed. The strikes have resulted in casualties, with reports of deaths and injuries in the UAE and other Gulf nations, along with damage to iconic structures and airports in Dubai, Manama, and Kuwait.
In the months leading up to this crisis, Gulf nations were actively engaged in mediating discussions between the US and Iran, with hopes for a diplomatic resolution. Oman, in particular, had facilitated dialogue, believing that de-escalation was within reach, especially after Iran’s agreement to limit its nuclear capabilities. Yet, the sudden escalation of military actions has left these nations grasping for a way forward.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have long sought to avoid confrontation with Iran and have exerted considerable effort to prevent the current conflict. However, as they witness their cities being targeted, they face a “conundrum,” according to political analysts. They must consider their national integrity and the expectations of their populations, who expect their leaders to protect them from such attacks.
There are growing suggestions that the Gulf states may choose to respond by launching their own military operations while ensuring that they are not perceived as being on Israel’s side. By potentially utilizing the Peninsula Shield Force, a unified military established by the GCC, they might assert their agency and leadership in the escalating conflict.
The critical concern for these nations revolves around safeguarding their essential infrastructure from ongoing attacks, which if compromised, could render their regions uninhabitable and economically unviable. The long-term implications of these attacks could seriously undermine the Gulf states’ reputations as safe havens for investment and tourism, altering the security landscape of the region fundamentally.
This situation also signals a significant shift in regional security dynamics, moving from concerns predominantly related to non-state actors to a more direct state-on-state conflict. The Gulf states must now recalibrate their strategies as they navigate the escalating tensions and the looming threat from Iran, whose array of attacks thus far has been widespread and indiscriminate.
In the face of these challenges, the Gulf nations are rapidly reassessing their policies and positions to address the evolving situation, striving to maintain their stability while navigating a complex and increasingly dangerous landscape. The need for a rational and calculated response from Iran becomes central to the Gulf states’ strategy as they seek to preserve both their safety and reputation amidst the chaos.