Iceland has officially recognized the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security risk and an existential threat, underscoring the growing concerns about the implications of warming Arctic waters. This unprecedented declaration marks the first time a climate-related phenomenon has been classified with such urgency by the Icelandic government, as highlighted by Climate Minister Johann Pall Johannsson in a recent announcement to Reuters.
The AMOC is critical for transporting warm tropical waters toward Europe, significantly influencing winter temperatures across Northern Europe. However, scientists warn that the system is weakening due to the melting of Arctic ice and the influx of cold freshwater from Greenland into the ocean, which disturbs the balance of this crucial current.
“This is a direct threat to our national resilience and security,” Johannsson stated. The formal recognition allows the Icelandic government to begin disaster planning and coordination across various ministries, assessing risks related to food and energy security, transportation, and infrastructure resilience. A specific disaster preparedness policy is currently under development to address these challenges.
The implications of a potential AMOC collapse could be severe, resulting in extreme cold and snow across Northern Europe and affecting global weather patterns. This disruption could have dire consequences for rainfall in regions heavily dependent on it, such as subsistence farmers in Africa, South Asia, and South America. Additionally, such a collapse could accelerate warming and ice loss in Antarctica.
Historically, the AMOC has experienced shutdowns, including a significant one prior to the last Ice Age approximately 12,000 years ago. Recent scientific assessments suggest the risk of a collapse may be more imminent than previously understood. “The tipping point may well be quite close,” cautioned Stefan Rahmstorf, a climatologist from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
In October, the Nordic Council of Ministers organized a summit that brought together 60 experts to analyze the societal impacts of a potential AMOC failure. The recommendations from this workshop are expected to be released soon.
Other Northern European nations are also increasing attention to this critical issue. For instance, Ireland’s meteorological office has briefed both the prime minister and parliament regarding the potential risks, while Norway is enhancing its research before deciding whether to classify AMOC as a national security concern. The UK government has committed over £81 million (approximately $99 million) towards research on climate tipping points, despite its current assessment suggesting that a sudden collapse within this century is unlikely.
Minister Johannsson emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that Iceland cannot afford to await “definitive, long-term research” as Arctic warming progresses. He highlighted potential threats to marine transport and agriculture, both vital to Iceland’s economy and food systems, saying that extreme weather could severely impact the country’s capacity to sustain these sectors.