Hurricane season in the Atlantic has officially begun, and forecasts indicate that while it may not reach the extremes of 2024 — which was marked by one of the most destructive seasons in history — it is still shaping up to be an active one. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates “above-average” activity this season, projecting between six to ten hurricanes from June 1 through November 30.
The NOAA forecast reveals several key numbers for the upcoming season: there is a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with expectations of three to five major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher, and a total of 13 to 19 named storms. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds of at least 111 mph. NOAA plans to update this forecast in early August.
Forecasters attribute the expected increase in hurricane activity partly to unusually warm Caribbean waters, which have been higher than average for an extended period. Warm water serves as fuel for hurricane formation and intensification. Climate change has significantly raised the likelihood of these elevated temperatures. Interestingly, while the Atlantic has cooled somewhat since the last two summers, Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert, confirms the longer-term trend is clearly in the direction of warming.
In addition to warm waters, the current phase of the ENSO cycle is neutral, meaning there isn’t the high wind shear typically associated with El Niño to suppress hurricane formation. This gives way to unpredictability in hurricane development, further complicating forecasts.
Concerns about preparedness for the hurricane season have also been raised amid staffing cuts and budget constraints faced by NOAA and FEMA. Critics argue that these challenges, stemming from previous administration policies, could impact the accuracy of forecasts crucial for protecting lives and properties. For example, several National Weather Service offices now lack lead meteorologists, which could hinder effective hurricane warnings and evacuations in vulnerable communities.
As the administration assures the public of enhanced preparedness, experts warn that reduced staffing and funding could lead to tragic consequences. The concern is echoed in an open letter by former directors of the National Weather Service, who emphasized the potential risks involved if significant weather events occur without adequate forecasting support.
Despite these challenges, communities remain vigilant as they prepare for the storm season. By actively monitoring developments and planning rescues and evacuations, they can mitigate the impact of severe weather events.
The current outlook emphasizes the importance of maintaining robust staffing and funding at key agencies. The ongoing conversation around climate change reminds us of our ongoing need to improve environmental preparedness and resilience in the face of natural disasters. While concerns are valid, proactive measures and community readiness offer hope during the hurricane season.