Hurricane Milton was classified as a Category 4 storm in the Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Milton was packing sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (249 kilometers per hour).
All timings on the map are in Eastern Time.
Where will flooding occur?
Storm surges, which are ocean waters pushed onshore by storm winds, have historically been the leading cause of hurricane-related fatalities. If a surge coincides with high tide, the consequences can be severe.
Locations at risk include Tampa, Fort Myers, and Cedar Key, with potential storm surge flooding ranging from 12 inches (30 cm) to over 6 feet (183+ cm).
Where will it rain?
Flash floods, the second deadliest threat from hurricanes, can occur inland and far from the storm’s center. Even weaker storms can produce excessive rainfall that floods low-lying areas.
Milton is the thirteenth named tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic for the year 2024. In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted that there would be between 17 and 25 named tropical cyclones this year, which is above the normal average.
What does the cyclone look like from above?
Satellite images can help assess the strength, size, and organization of a tropical cyclone. The stronger a cyclone becomes, the more likely it is to develop a well-defined eye at its center. If the eye appears symmetrical, it usually indicates the cyclone has not encountered anything to weaken it.
This hurricane season follows an unusually active previous year, which saw 20 named tropical cyclones, including an early storm that was later informally dubbed “Unnamed.” This marked the eighth consecutive year with above-average activity, exceeding the typical count of 14 named storms. Only Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the United States.
Typically, the El Niño pattern from last season would have suppressed hurricane activity and reduced the number of tropical cyclones. However, in 2023, unusually warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures mitigated the usual impact of El Niño on cyclone formation.
Warm ocean temperatures that contributed to last year’s active hurricane season have returned and are even warmer at the start of this season, increasing meteorologists’ confidence in the likelihood of more tropical cyclones. Rising sea surface temperatures may also allow cyclones to strengthen faster than normal.
Additionally, the El Niño pattern that was present last year is now diminishing, very likely resulting in a more favorable atmosphere for the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones.
Hurricanes require a calm environment to develop. In the Atlantic, a strong El Niño increases wind shear—variations in wind speed and direction with altitude—which disrupts a tropical cyclone’s ability to organize. In the absence of El Niño this year, it is more likely that clouds will rise to the heights needed to support a powerful cyclone.